725
FXUS63 KFGF 060307
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1007 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

Daily shower/storm chances continue this weekend. Severe
thunderstorms are unlikely at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish this evening.
This will continue over the next hour or so. In its wake, mid-
level stratus may linger across the area from dying cells but
impacts will be minimal.

UPDATE
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
region with slow forward motion. Impacts will continue to be
primarily lightning as shear is garbage and instability is
minimal. These will come to an end after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Synopsis...

Broad upper level troughing in place across the region with a
persistence pattern of diurnal convection currently ongoing.
Little organization as bulk deep layer shear only around
5-10kts. Therefore brief heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds
the main threats with any stronger cells. Current activity
should wane as daylight diminishes this evening.

While daily shower/storm chances to persist through the weekend
with the passage of the shortwave trough aloft. Weak WAA and
trough axis in place should allow for an increase in coverage of
the precipitation chances especially across the south Saturday
and the east into Sunday as the wave slowly rotates through the
Dakotas/Minnesota this weekend. Deep layer shear to remain weak,
therefore overall storm organization and threat for severe
weather is unlikely. Brief heavy rain still a potential for
stronger cells with slower storms motions expected. Overall
little threat for flooding though, unless some stronger cells
move over the same area, especially if an urban area.

Upper level troughiness that has been in place across the region
begins to move east through next week, with western US ridging
building eastward into the central US through the end of the
week. This should allow for a warming across the area through
the week, with a shift toward drier conditions toward the end of
next week. Therefore increased and humidity can be expected by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR ceilings and minimal impacts will last through the first
half of the TAF period. By 18z, expect cumulus to once again
develop (still VFR) with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Due to the normal minimal certainty with these types of
environments, they have not been added to the TAF. Expect low
predictability and short amendment horizons (on the order of
hours) for thunderstorms. Winds will also remain light except
around thunderstorms, where gusty winds to 20 knots with erratic
directions may occur.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Perroux