702
FXUS63 KFGF 042042
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and evening, with
  a chance for funnels in west central MN. Severe thunderstorms
  are unlikely.

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...Synopsis...

H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS with northwest flow
aloft over the Northern Plains. Look for a continuation of a
relatively active shortwave pattern through the next week as a
western H5 ridge maintains northwest flow for at least the next
several days. Signals suggest a weakening trend of the upper ridge
toward the end of next week, which would serve to support a more
progressive, but still wavy, pattern.

Upper low continues to move to the south this afternoon and evening,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area.
Thunderstorm activity thus far today has been on the weaker side,
with perhaps small hail with the strongest cells. The environment
will remain supportive of funnels and weak tornadoes through early
this evening due to the prominence of several stationary boundaries
draped across the area. Instability will taper off as we head into
the evening hours, leaving only scattered showers heading into the
overnight hours.

Friday brings a chance for mainly afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms, along with a chance for wildfire smoke during the
evening. Another shortwave approaches the region Friday night into
Saturday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during
the afternoon and evening. Although a few strong storms are
possible, widespread severe weather is not expected Friday or
Saturday. Rain chances continue into Saturday night before tapering
off Sunday.

Another shortwave will bring rain chances into the area Monday, with
otherwise relatively quiet weather heading into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all sites this afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing to the west of KDVL, as
well as south of KFAR. Coverage is expected to expand through
the afternoon, with VCTS possible across many areas. Guidance
has overproduced coverage thus far today, with most locations
seeing a delay in the onset of precipitation; however, we should
start to see an increase in activity by mid to late afternoon.
Heading into the evening hours, showers and storms move off to
the south and east, bringing VFR conditions and generally light
winds through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch