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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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456 FXUS63 KFGF 021944 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with morning heating resulting in increasing northwest winds, cloud cover, and a few showers and storms. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the weekend. The first round over the 4th of July is not expected to bring severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...Synopsis... The 500mb low over central Manitoba will track slowly eastward tonight, reaching central Ontario by 1 pm Wednesday. Another spoke of shortwave energy looks to set up along the Canadian border on Wednesday afternoon along with the continued cool temperatures aloft. The next wave is still on track for Thursday into Thursday night, although the strongest portion is still expected to remain south of this FA (over South Dakota into southern Minnesota). Beyond that, there are additional weaker waves to keep an eye on as well. ...Wednesday... Similar ingredients (to today) come into play once again Wednesday after some morning heating. Shortwave energy looks to set up a little further northward than today, this time more so along the Canadian border. Morning sunshine will cause afternoon CAPE values to increase, but 0-6km shear values again will remain on the weak side. 500mb temperatures may even be a degree or two cooler than today. So shower and storm coverage will pick up through the late morning and continue through the afternoon (mainly isolated in coverage along the Canadian border). Cloud cover is also expected to increase during the peak heating period as will northwest winds. ...Several rounds of showers and storms... An active weather pattern remains in place for the end of the week into the weekend. This is due to northwesterly flow aloft, which will have several embedded shortwaves that will propagate through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Each wave will bring a chance for showers, storms. The first wave arrives for the 4th of July on Thursday. Recent guidance has kept the track of the low pressure further south, and as a result kept the heavier rainfall in SD and southern MN. This has reduced rainfall totals for this FA, particularly across the northern half. Probabilities for more then half of an inch of rainfall are about 50% across the south, tapering to less then five percent across the north. One additional problem for evening fireworks may be pop up showers and storms on the evening of the 4th. Afternoon heating will cause steepening lapse rates which when combined with cyclonic flow over the region should be just enough to force showers to develop. Something to monitor as the holiday approaches. Another wave over the weekend looks to bring more storms and rain on Saturday. CSU machine learning is highlighting our southeastern FA for severe potential. While a cold front will advance to the south and east with about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE in the environment ahead of it, shear looks to be on the weak side. Add in the uncertainty in the timing of the front, there are plenty of unknowns. This leaves a big question mark as to how widespread any showers or thunderstorms may be, not to mention their potential severity. More wrap around showers and weak storms from cyclonic flow remain possible Sunday and Monday. Thereafter, there are hints of a quieter weather pattern into earlier next week due to western US ridging. How quiet it will be depends on the strength of the ridge. If ridging can propagate eastward, we may finally see warmer and drier weather next week. If the ridge remains a bit further off to the west, we would remain in northwest flow, in turn keeping us more active due to the higher likelihood of shortwaves passing through. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 So far most of the cumulus has been in the MVFR range, but within another hour or two it should rise back up into the VFR range. West winds remain on the breezy side, and they will continue that way until early evening, when they will drop again. It is pretty tough to say whether any of the developing showers and storms today will hit any of the TAF sites, so only mentioned a VCSH potential for now. Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with increasing winds again, spotty showers and storms, and increasing wind speeds. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon/Rafferty AVIATION...Godon