876
FXUS63 KFGF 030307
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1007 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wednesday looks like a repeat of today, with morning heating
  resulting in increasing northwest winds, cloud cover, and a
  few showers and storms.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
  through the weekend. The first round over the 4th of July is
  not expected to bring severe weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Most convection has diminished with the loss of daytime
heating. There still may be some areas of brief showers as
mentioned in previous update. No impacts expected from hazardous
weather, nor any changes made to the forecast through tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Widely scattered showers and weak thunderstorms extend from the
southern Red River Valley into Minnesota as of 7 PM. This
activity will continue through 9 PM as they push generally
toward the east. Not expecting any hazardous weather except for
some lighting.

Showers and thunderstorms in western ND also continues east-
southeast. This activity is forecast by guidance to generally
wane as it nears eastern ND, although some weak convection may
survive into the early evening here; again no hazardous weather
expected from this.

Otherwise, areas of brief showers may develop tonight as forcing
from the upper wave in MB may help force weak convection to
life.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Synopsis...
The 500mb low over central Manitoba will track slowly eastward
tonight, reaching central Ontario by 1 pm Wednesday. Another
spoke of shortwave energy looks to set up along the Canadian
border on Wednesday afternoon along with the continued cool
temperatures aloft. The next wave is still on track for Thursday
into Thursday night, although the strongest portion is still
expected to remain south of this FA (over South Dakota into
southern Minnesota). Beyond that, there are additional weaker
waves to keep an eye on as well.

...Wednesday...
Similar ingredients (to today) come into play once again
Wednesday after some morning heating. Shortwave energy looks to
set up a little further northward than today, this time more so
along the Canadian border. Morning sunshine will cause afternoon
CAPE values to increase, but 0-6km shear values again will
remain on the weak side. 500mb temperatures may even be a degree
or two cooler than today. So shower and storm coverage will
pick up through the late morning and continue through the
afternoon (mainly isolated in coverage along the Canadian border).
Cloud cover is also expected to increase during the peak heating
period as will northwest winds.

...Several rounds of showers and storms...
An active weather pattern remains in place for the end of the week
into the weekend. This is due to northwesterly flow aloft, which
will have several embedded shortwaves that will propagate through
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Each wave will bring a chance
for showers, storms. The first wave arrives for the 4th of July on
Thursday. Recent guidance has kept the track of the low pressure
further south, and as a result kept the heavier rainfall in SD and
southern MN. This has reduced rainfall totals for this FA,
particularly across the northern half. Probabilities for more then
half of an inch of rainfall are about 50% across the south, tapering
to less then five percent across the north. One additional problem
for evening fireworks may be pop up showers and storms on the
evening of the 4th. Afternoon heating will cause steepening lapse
rates which when combined with cyclonic flow over the region should
be just enough to force showers to develop. Something to monitor as
the holiday approaches.

Another wave over the weekend looks to bring more storms and rain on
Saturday. CSU machine learning is highlighting our southeastern FA
for severe potential. While a cold front will advance to the south
and east with about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE in the environment ahead of
it, shear looks to be on the weak side. Add in the uncertainty in
the timing of the front, there are plenty of unknowns. This leaves a
big question mark as to how widespread any showers or thunderstorms
may be, not to mention their potential severity. More wrap around
showers and weak storms from cyclonic flow remain possible Sunday
and Monday. Thereafter, there are hints of a quieter weather pattern
into earlier next week due to western US ridging. How quiet it will
be depends on the strength of the ridge. If ridging can propagate
eastward, we may finally see warmer and drier weather next week. If
the ridge remains a bit further off to the west, we would remain in
northwest flow, in turn keeping us more active due to the higher
likelihood of shortwaves passing through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will continue within
Minnesota through 03Z. Limited vsby and perhaps some lightning
will be main impacts within this activity. Winds will be light
under 10 kt out of the west-northwest this evening.

Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and
thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between
20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in
any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/CJ
DISCUSSION...Godon/Rafferty
AVIATION...CJ