208
FXUS63 KFGF 030855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening t-storms
  today along and north of Highway 2.  No severe storms.

- Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue
  into early next week, highest chances Thursday the 4th and on
  Saturday.  No severe storms anticipated.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb low has moved more north than this time Tuesday with
circulation in far NW Ontario and northeast Manitoba. Main
clouds with this wave along and north of
Dauphin/Winnipeg/Kenora.

Clear to partly cloudy south of this
cloud area over eastern ND into northwest/west central MN.
Enough of a west wind to prevent fog formation, but 10-12z
period may see patchy fog areas as RH values greater than 90
pct. Sunshine this morning will allow surface heating and highs
today a couple degrees warmer than on Tuesday in most areas.
With continued cool temps at 500 mb with readings of -14 to -15C
enough heating to generate MU CAPE values in the 1200-1400 j/kg
range, higher in S Manitoba. CAMS indicate isold to scat t-storm
development this aftn/early evening in S Manitoba but also in NE
ND/NW MN mainly north of Hwy 2. 0-6 km bulk shear values less
than 20 kts so no severe weather.

Thursday system for the 4th will remain mostly south with
heaviest rainfall (more than 1 inch) south of the area. Probs
for more than 0.25 inch of rain 12z Thu-12z Fri range from less
than 10 percent Roseau to near 55 pct Elbow Lake and along SD
border. Chances for rain will be highest in the aftn mainly due
to some aftn heating aiding in scattered t-storm development. No
severe weather is anticipated due to 0-6 km bulk shear less
than 20 kts in our area.

Same pattern continues into early next week with a daily chance
for a few showers or t-storms mainly north. Saturday aftn will
see an upper wave move in and higher rain chances, (60 pops
north). Bulk shear will remain low so no severe storms
anticipated. Temps and dew pts will remain the same with highs
75-80 and dew pts mid 50s to low 60s.





&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mostly clear skies are forecast over TAF sites through the
evening. No impacts to aviation are expected from hazardous
weather. Winds will be light under 10 kt out of the west-
northwest this evening.

Wednesday will hold another chance (30%) for showers and
thunderstorms, highest chances in northeast North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota during the mid to late afternoon (between
20-03Z). At this time, left out of TAFs due to low confidence in
any potential thunderstorm impacting a site.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ