Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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621 FXUS63 KFGF 050312 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1012 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon and evening, with a chance for funnels in west central MN. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely. - Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers are still lingering mainly over the Devils Lake Basin and the far southern Red River Valley (near ND/SD state line) and west central MN. Clearing trends are already underway to the northeast as intensity of returns where showers are in place are weakening. This is generally reflected by the previous forecast, though I did make some adjustments to better reflect coverage trends. There hasn`t been any recent lighting activity within our CWA in the last hour. This matches the expected trends associated with the loss of daytime heating/stabilization in the low levels in our area where mid level lapse rates are weak. I trended thunderstorm coverage downward as well with this update, to better reflect those trends. UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The main mid level low has continued to track southeast and areas of more defined surface convergence remain outside of our area. As low level lapse rates have already started to stabilize the threat for weak tornadoes has diminished. There have been some areas of thunderstorms training and locally heavy rain over more urban areas could result in localized flash flooding. Trends in actively show a general decrease in organization and movement south and as we decouple showers/storms should rapidly end (as shown by CAMs). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...Synopsis... H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS with northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Look for a continuation of a relatively active shortwave pattern through the next week as a western H5 ridge maintains northwest flow for at least the next several days. Signals suggest a weakening trend of the upper ridge toward the end of next week, which would serve to support a more progressive, but still wavy, pattern. Upper low continues to move to the south this afternoon and evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Thunderstorm activity thus far today has been on the weaker side, with perhaps small hail with the strongest cells. The environment will remain supportive of funnels and weak tornadoes through early this evening due to the prominence of several stationary boundaries draped across the area. Instability will taper off as we head into the evening hours, leaving only scattered showers heading into the overnight hours. Friday brings a chance for mainly afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with a chance for wildfire smoke during the evening. Another shortwave approaches the region Friday night into Saturday, with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening. Although a few strong storms are possible, widespread severe weather is not expected Friday or Saturday. Rain chances continue into Saturday night before tapering off Sunday. Another shortwave will bring rain chances into the area Monday, with otherwise relatively quiet weather heading into mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to track north to south across eastern ND and northwest MN, moving within the vicinity of some TAF sites and temporary impacts. This activity should quickly diminish early this evening, so there may be another hour or two of aviation impacts before improvement. VFR ceilings/vis should prevail through the TAF period, though there is a chance (30%) for MVFR to develop in the 11-14Z period Friday morning. Wind should generally remain out of the north- northwest 5-10kt through the TAF period (with higher gusts near showers/storms early in the period). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR