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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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217 FXUS63 KFGF 171728 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday through Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cumulus development still remains thicker on the Minnesota side. Still not expecting much to occur this evening into the overnight period. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Some lower level Cumulus development has begun early this morning however still not expecting any rainfall for today. With light winds and the high pressure above us, will be monitoring for possible fog development in the early morning. UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Skies mainly clear over the area at 12z. Lows overnight were in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Forecast looks good today, sunshine leading to scattered CU development. North winds near 10 kts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Synopsis... High pressure will be over the area by late today. North wind 10 mph this morning will diminish to near calm by this evening as high moves overhead. Sunshine will dominate today, though do expect some afternoon scattered CU as sufficient 850 mb moisture remains around 5500 ft agl to which the atmosphere will mix out to. Convective temps 71-74F across the area. No showers are anticipated as lots of dry air above the CU layer and no upper level waves will be moving through. High pressure moves tonight with near calm winds. Then slowly east on Thursday with winds turning southerly 5-10 mph. Temps warming as well with highs mid 70s-low 80s. These are right on normal for this time of year. Starting Friday and continuing into early next week will be a daily 20 pct chance of a shower or t-storm, mainly in the peak heating of the aftn/early evening. 500 mb ridge builds due north with hottest airmass thru Alberta into parts of the Northwest Terrorities and northwest Saskatchewan. 500 mb flow mostly due south on east crest of the ridge thru Manitoba into eastern ND/MN. Some weak short waves will move through at times, and when interacting with modest instability of around 1500 j/kg in the afternoons/early evening a few showers or storms likely the result. Sufficient instability for a few storms, but 0-6 km bulk shear prog to be less than 20 kts so no organized supercell activity for severe wx. Highs in the 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will predominantly continue through the TAF period. Occasionally cielings may drop into the MVFR category but its hould be short lived. Currently cielings are between 3000 and 5000ft and are not expected to drop below that. KDVL overcast conditions are expected to lift by this evening. A few models has some patchy fog developing in the morning but its uncertain if the airports will become saturated enough to produce fog. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...MM