441
FXUS63 KFGF 190445
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. No
severe weather is anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

There are still a few patches of clouds across the FA, so it is
not totally clear, but pretty close. Wind speeds remain on the
lighter side as well. There have been a few echoes on radar near
Bismarck, and CAMs continue the trend of showing this area
expanding in coverage and sinking south-southeast overnight.
This could possibly affect portions of southeast North Dakota
around sunrise (with some showers, maybe a few rumbles of
thunder). No changes are needed to the forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Clear skies expected for tonight across the region. In the
early morning -around 4:00am- expect scattered clouds which will
develop into pop-up thunderstorms in the central/southern Red
River Valley, and areas to the west around 7:00am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper level pattern over the northern plains is north to
northwesterly flow as a ridge out in the western United States
continues to amplify. Out of the northerly to northwesterly flow
comes chances for showers, thunderstorms, and potential upper level
smoke. Canadian wild fires up in the Northwestern Territories,
Yukon, and Alberta continue to push wildfire smoke into the upper
level flow. RAP/HRRR guidance has the smoke pushing along the flow
into the northern plains later this evening and into the overnight
hours. This trend continues into the weekend. Current satellite has
smoke pushing through portions of eastern North Dakota and southern
Manitoba. Areas towards lakes country are seeing continued cumulus
development from the heating of the day.

Out of the north to northwesterly flow we get the introduction of
short waves translating along the flow. This brings chances for
precipitation almost on a daily basis. Confidence is low on the
breakdown of the north to northwesterly flow from the ridge out
west, with clusters indicating two potential scenarios. 50% of
clusters have our continued pattern through the majority of next
week, with the second scenario (50% chance) we see the ridge shift
further eastward bringing drier/warmer conditions. A strong upper
level wave in the Gulf of Alaska would be needed to have the second
scenario occur. None the less temperatures will be warmer this
weekend and into next week with the low to mid 80s expected.

...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances...

Daily chances for shower and isolated thunderstorms during the
weekend and into early next week. During daytime heating hours,
instability increase and weak synoptic forcing would allow for
isolated thunderstorms and showers to develop within the forecast
region. With shear and instability being weaker, we don`t anticipate
severe weather at this time. However, a few storms could be on the
stronger side producing frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and
small hail. This is justified by atmospheric soundings where we have
weak instability, weak forcing in the hail growth zone, with a layer
of drier air in the mid to upper levels. This would limit the growth
of the thunderstorms and supply only quick updrafts leading to small
hail, brief gusty winds, and frequent lightning. The best chances
for these isolated thunderstorms would be over the weekend, with
confidence being lower as we start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Pretty much stuck with the 00z set of TAFs. No longer as
confident that any overnight shower/storm activity will affect
KFAR, so removed that mention. The trend in the CAMs has been to
show this activity staying west and southwest of KFAR. The
latest model guidance is also looking weaker (maybe less
coverage as well) for any afternoon convection. With less
overall confidence, went ahead and removed any mention of VCTS
in the afternoon at the TAF sites. Something stray could still
hit a TAF site, but the confidence is just too low to keep it
mentioned.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Godon