855
FXUS63 KFGF 061912
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with up to 50 mph
  winds and 1" hail.

- Late week heat concerns as highs push into the upper 80s to
  low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Synopsis...

Subtropical ridging centered over Florida will steer TS Beryl north
into the lower Mississippi valley enhancing a belt of mid level
wind though the Ohio Valley and stagnating the overall pattern
across the CONUS this week. Further west building ridging
slowly shifts east from the Pacific coast inland into the
rockies. With this dual high pressure a split jet across the
CONUS with one stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley into
the northeast and another jet across the northern Canadian
prairies, the northern plains will lie in very weak to
negligible flow aloft through the coming week. This will lead
to high confidence in the synoptic pattern and a persistence
type forecast through at least mid week.

- Today/Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern North
Dakota this afternoon spreading into Minnesota. Primary forcing
is DCVA ahead of the upper low centered over north central
South Dakota. A band of convection forming along a boundary
extending from SE ND to Southern MN may eventually work into our
west central MN counties where eff shear of ~25 kts should
promote stronger cells capable of near severe thresholds.
Elsewhere expecting things to remain sub-severe. Activity will
generally track east/Northeast with the low and an end time of
around midnight for most activity as the loss of afternoon
heating takes full effect.

Moving through Sunday and into early next week more shower
chances as various pieces of energy move through bringing
enough forcing to give afternoon showers and 10-30% pops
similar to the past few days. Confidence in each day with
regards to evolution and timing is inherently low due to the
weak nature of forcing and subtle influence of any mesoscale
factors such as cloud cover or surface boundaries.

- Late Week Heat

Continuing past Wednesday the western ridging finally progress far
enough east to build low level thermal ridging over us and push
sfc temps into the 80s. Building southerly 850mb flow Thursday
into next weekend on the eastern periphery of this thermal ridge
will promote increased mixing. This is reflected by the low
spread in NBM maxT through the week with <7 degree spread between the
10th and 90th percentile any given day between now and Friday
at a given point. Area highs climbing from the 70s and 80s today
to upper 80s and even a few low 90s for some by the end of the
week. HeatRisk (found at wpc.ncep.noa.gov/heatrisk) is already
showing a broad chunk of the area under a moderate risk of
health related impacts for Friday and Saturday due to these
warm temps. Will continue to monitor the need for heat related
headlines come later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Ceilings with afternoon convection have dropped as low as MVFR
with vis dropping to 4SM at a few obs sites. Expect these
conditions to periodically persist through 02Z before activity
diminishes across all sites. Winds remaining light and likely
becoming variable overnight through prevailing southerly if over
5kts. VFR conditions Sunday with more scattered showers.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT