510
FXUS62 KFFC 051856
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

 - Scattered thunderstorms will continue in the region this evening,
with a few storms producing wind gusts at or above 40 mph.

 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of central and
eastern Georgia for Saturday afternoon.

This Evening and Tonight:

Scattered thunderstorms will be the primary concern through this
evening. As of 2:45 PM a line of thunderstorms was moving through
northern Georgia. A weak cold from and fairly well developed cold
pool were the primary factors driving storm maintenance with this
line. Scattered diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms
were ongoing ahead of the main line of storms in a humid (dewpoints
in the mid 70s) and hot (temperatures in the 90s) environment. The
SPC upgraded northern Georgia to a Marginal Risk of severe weather
earlier today. Given the current SPC Mesoanalysis the environment
remains a potential favorable for isolated severe wind gusts in far
northern Georgia where effective shear was near 20 kt. Elsewhere a
few isolated sub severe gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range area
possible, primarily as the main line of storms marches east this
evening.

Heat will remain a concern through this evening in the portions of
central and northern Georgia that have yet to see rainfall today. A
Heat Advisory remains in place for these areas, but it has been
cancelled for northwest Georgia where the rain has already moved
through. Observed heat index values in the 105 to 108 degrees are
expected within the Heat Advisory.

More Storms and Rain on Saturday:

The aforementioned cold front will stall out somewhere near the
Interstate 85 Corridor on Saturday. This will set up a bifurcated
pattern of surface dewpoints in the region on Saturday. A drier
airmass should allow dewpoints to fall into the upper 60s in
northwest Georgia. Meanwhile soggy mid 70s dewpoints will linger in
central and eastern Georgia. Due to these higher dewpoints and
expected highs in the 90s, heat index values should climb back above
105 degrees in portions of central Georgia Saturday. Thus a Heat
Advisory has been issued for the region. Scattered thunderstorms
should develop Saturday afternoon along and south of the front.
Severe weather is unlikely due to a lack of shear, but locally heavy
rainfall will be possible (1-3 inches). The storms could limit heat
index values in some areas.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The long term forecast will be fairly typical for summer time in
the southeast, with daily rain and thunderstorm chances and hot
temperatures expected. As the subtropical ridge begins to break
down over the weekend, a broad 500mb trough will nudge a boundary
over the forecast area. This boundary will be relatively weak and
diffuse, and ultimately stall out across the area for much of the
week as the broad upper level troughing pattern persists. This
boundary will serve as the focal point for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms throughout the long term period, with
most days seeing scattered to numerous shows and thunderstorms
across the area. Abundant moisture will allow PWATs to surge into
the 2.0-2.5" range through much of the work week, which will
produce some concerns over locally heavy rainfall in any strong
storms that develop. Additionally, the moisture at the surface
will drive dewpoints into the mid to upper 70s for much of the
long term forecast period, resulting in triple digit heat index
values for many locations, particularly south of the I-85
corridor.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will remain the main aviation concern
through 06Z Saturday. Impacts, including brief visibility
restrictions and erratic winds, are anticipated all the the TAF
sites. Isolated storms could occur (<15% chance) between 06Z and
18Z Saturday. Winds will generally be from the southwest through
00Z, though storms will lead to variable winds in areas. Areas of
IFR/MVFR ceilings are possible between 06Z and 15Z Saturday.
Patchy fog is possible between 09Z and 14Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Overall confidence in the ATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the wind, ceiling and visibility forecasts.
Low confidence in the thunderstorm timing.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  74  90 /  50  40  30  60
Atlanta         76  95  75  93 /  60  30  10  60
Blairsville     69  89  68  86 /  50  30  10  50
Cartersville    73  94  71  93 /  40  20  10  50
Columbus        76  95  76  93 /  60  70  30  70
Gainesville     75  94  74  90 /  50  30  20  60
Macon           76  95  74  90 /  50  80  40  60
Rome            74  95  72  95 /  40  20  10  50
Peachtree City  73  95  73  93 /  60  30  10  60
Vidalia         76  95  75  90 /  20  70  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ022>025-027-
032>039-043>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ027-036>039-
047>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....KAB
AVIATION...Albright