411
FXUS62 KFFC 080640
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Diurnal convection continues to be the norm for the short term.
Severe storms are not expected.

- Heat index values will hit triple digits again Monday, but are
expected to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

Morning cloud cover was slow to improve today, lingering into the
early afternoon hours in some locations. This cover prohibited early
convective development, though over south Georgia and the northeast
GA, storms were quick to make up for it. Storms are expected to
remain subsevere, but with PWs above 2 inches, could include heavy
downpours.

The state remains sandwiched between low pressure to the east, and
Tropical Storm Beryl to the west, and will remain so through the
short term period. Tropical moisture continues to filter into the
state by way of southerly flow, contributing to those high PWs and
warm dew points. The hot and muggy conditions continue to fuel the
afternoon storm activity, and a few hours of likely PoPs are
expected both today and Monday.

There is some uncertainty with late evening activity tonight. CAMs
are indicating possibility of a mass of storms developing over
northeast Georgia late this afternoon to early evening and barreling
southeastward along the greater Georgia-South Carolina state border
through the wee morning hours Monday. Should this materialize, in
addition to the lightning, expect main concerns will be strong winds
and heavy rain. Could not rule out severe wind gusts. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches per hour or more are possible, and could lead to
localized flooding or flash flooding.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The most notable change for the long term is the infiltration of
drier air in the wake of Beryl. As Beryl gets swept up into the
trough over the eastern CONUS, the cut off low over the western
Atlantic will help steer the system well to our north. This
northward shift in the track of the low has undercut our overall
rainfall totals through the long term period compared to previous
forecasts. Forecast PWATs have also trended down through the week
and are now hovering closer to 1.5-2.0" with the highest PWATs
situated across far southeastern Georgia. As a result, QPF through
the period is now between a quarter of an inch to an inch of rain,
with the highest totals in southeast Georgia and the northeast
Georgia mountains. Locally higher amounts will be possible in any
storms throughout the week. Tuesday still looks to be the most
active day of the forecast period with numerous showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. While the relatively drier airmass
(at least by July standards) enters the forecast area from the
northwest Wednesday, the broad troughing aloft and a boundary
bifurcating the forecast area will provide support for diurnal
activity in the form of isolated to scattered coverage of storms
through the end of the work week. In the absence of any appreciable
shear, severe weather is not expected at this time though a few
storms could become strong producing gusty winds and frequent
lightning. The relatively drier air won`t help cool temperatures off
(max daily temperatures are still forecast to reach the low to mid
90s), however, it will help limit widespread triple digit heat index
values across the area through the weekend. A few locations along
and south of the I-85 corridor will still see uncomfortable triple
digit heat index values through Saturday.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

SHRA and TSRA have come to an end at all TAF sites. IFR/LIFR cigs
are already building in across east GA including AHN and should
spread into metro TAF sites over next few hours. These will end by
14Z-15Z time period. Diurnal storms will be possible across all
sites during afternoon. Chance of low cigs again Tuesday morning,
but lower confidence compared to this morning. Winds will be light
through the period as a boundary sits near airport, but generally
from east side. Could see brief wind shift to west side during
late afternoon, however.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium tomorrow morning cigs. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  94  75  93 /  30  50  30  20
Atlanta         75  94  75  92 /  30  50  20  10
Blairsville     69  89  70  87 /  30  60  40  40
Cartersville    74  95  73  93 /  20  50  30  20
Columbus        76  95  76  94 /  30  50  10  20
Gainesville     74  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  30
Macon           74  94  75  94 /  20  40  10  20
Rome            75  95  75  92 /  20  50  30  30
Peachtree City  74  94  74  93 /  30  40  20  10
Vidalia         76  93  76  94 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....KAB
AVIATION...Lusk