542
FXUS62 KFFC 080851
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key Messages:

  - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA from 11 am
    to 8 pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible.

  - Diurnal convection is expected to be more suppressed today.
    This is part of why heat advisory was issued, as convective
    debris will be less present. Still, some afternoon storms will be
    possible across north and central Georgia, a few of which could
    be strong.

Forecast:

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to progress through east
central Georgia this morning thanks to what is left of MCS that
pushed through eastern portion of the state last night. In the wake
of the MCS we are seeing some very patchy fog and low cloud ceilings
this morning. Not anticipating fog to become widespread enough for
any product issuance, but will continue to monitor.

Today, hires guidance is showing relatively little afternoon
convection compared to previous days (with the exception of the FV3,
but it looks quite overdone). Several factors seem to back up a
lower coverage solution - overnight MCS has worked over good portion
of the area that will take some time to recover to start. This will
likely help delay onset of convection. In addition, the pattern is
favoring some mid level subsidence, with cut off low to the east and
Beryl making landfall to the west and moving north, well away from
the CWA. All this said, moisture is copious. PWATs remain very high
across much of north and central Georgia (2+") and surface dewpoints
are surging well into the 70s yet again this afternoon. Convective T
will still be achievable, so some afternoon thunderstorms are
expected. Shear remains practically non-existent at less than 20
kts 0-6km and the moist adiabatic profiles are not conducive to
impressive lapse rates, so not expecting much severe weather, but
a strong thunderstorm or two will still be possible. Heavy
rainfall rates will again be a concern, and similar to today,
storms will be capable of 1-2+" an hour rates, which will be
capable of some flash flooding under the right conditions.

Given the aforementioned reduced coverage of precipitation today,
heat advisory is necessary in part of central and eastern GA. Most
areas in the advisory will approach heat indices at or above 105 by
the afternoon. WBGT values are also quite elevated in this area,
between 88-90, demonstrating how high the humidity is. Please use
caution if working or exercising outdoors. See advisory for more
information.

Tomorrow looks very similar to forecast for today. Convection
looks to be limited thanks to some subsidence present as what will
be the remnants of Beryl slides to the NW of the CWA. It looks to
be just as hot and humid, so heat advisories may be necessary
again. Have chosen to substantially lower PoPs compared to
multimodel statistical ensemble (NBM).

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

At the onset of the extended forecast period on Wednesday, the
remnants of Beryl will be lifting well to our north from the Ohio
Valley into the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, considerably
drier air will wrap southward in its wake into the forecast area.
Dewpoints in the 60s and associated drier precipitable water values
of 1 to 1.5" (and perhaps even sub 1") will filter into much of the
state from Wednesday into Thursday. In the presence of this
considerably drier airmass, PoPs will be on a significant downward
trend on both Wednesday and Thursday. PoPs were adjusted a bit below
NBM with this trend likely to continue over the coming forecast
cycles. From Friday into the weekend, mainly isolated to widely
scattered diurnal PoPs are favored given no focus for any widespread
increase in coverage.

The infiltration of the aforementioned drier airmass will also
provide a welcome relief from the stifling, swampy conditions of
late. Daytime highs will dip slightly by Wednesday and Thursday, but
the most noticeable impact will be lower heat index values amid more
tolerable dewpoints. In fact, by Thursday into Friday, triple digit
heat index values will likely be virtually eliminated across the CWA
- a welcome change. Additionally, morning lows in the 60s are
increasingly likely across north Georgia by Thursday and Friday,
which would feel practically fall-like as compared to recent
conditions.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

SHRA and TSRA have come to an end at all TAF sites. IFR/LIFR cigs
are already building in across east GA including AHN and should
spread into metro TAF sites over next few hours. These will end by
14Z-15Z time period. Diurnal storms will be possible across all
sites during afternoon. Chance of low cigs again Tuesday morning,
but lower confidence compared to this morning. Winds will be light
through the period as a boundary sits near airport, but generally
from east side. Could see brief wind shift to west side during
late afternoon, however.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium tomorrow morning cigs. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  74  95  75 /  50  30  50  30
Atlanta         94  76  94  76 /  50  30  50  20
Blairsville     89  69  88  70 /  60  30  60  30
Cartersville    97  74  95  74 /  50  20  50  30
Columbus        95  76  96  77 /  50  30  50  10
Gainesville     93  74  93  75 /  50  30  50  40
Macon           94  74  95  76 /  50  20  40  10
Rome            97  74  95  75 /  40  20  50  30
Peachtree City  95  74  95  74 /  50  30  40  20
Vidalia         92  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for GAZ036>039-047>051-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk