096
FXUS62 KFFC 031143
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

At a glance:

  - Warming temperatures with a Heat Advisory for much of the area
    on July 4th.
  - Increasing chances of showers and storms with the best chances
    across the S.

An upper ridge of high pressure will remain anchored across the SE
through Thursday. At the surface, the wedge of high pressure will
continue to weaken, with gradually warming temperatures across the
area along with increasing diurnal chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

For today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the S third of the area, with isolated showers across the Atlanta
metro area. The northern portion of the County Warning Area (CWA) is
expected to remain dry. For Thursday, scattered showers and storms
are expected across most of the area, with the best chances in the SW
CWA. QPF amounts across the area are expected to be generally light
through this period. However, very light low and mid-level winds will
lead to slow storm motion. As a result, isolated heavier rainfall
totals are certainly possible. Severe weather is not expected, but
isolated storms may become briefly strong with gusty winds the main
threat.

The big story- particularly on July 4th- will be hot temperatures.
High temperatures will rise well into the 90s across much of the
area, with the warmest temperatures over the E half and NW corner of
the area. The highest dew points during this time period are expected
across the SW portion of the area as southerly flow continues to tap
into Gulf of Mexico moisture. The different areas of max
temperatures and dew points will lead to rather variable heat index
values, but many areas are expected to reach low end Heat Advisory
criteria. Due to the upcoming holiday, have gone ahead and hoisted an
advisory for all areas save the NE. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the
high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the
mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and
the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front
looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Friday increasing rain
chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then looks
to sag southward over the area into Saturday evening/Sunday which is
reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models
are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again
any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we`ll have
to keep an eye on the flooding potential although rainfall amounts
are limited at this time. CAPE values ~1500-2500 J/KG are currently
showing up in the ensembles, so thunderstorms will definitely be a
risk as well through the weekend.

Towards the beginning to middle of next week, things are a little
uncertain when it comes to rainfall potential. The troughing does
look to stay solidly in place though over the central US with the
high pressure of to our east. With this pattern and the increased
moisture being brought in with southwesterly winds, have kept
increased PoPs through the middle of the week. This increased
moisture is also the reasoning behind the increased heat indices
through the long term. Currently looking at heat indices from 100-
107 through the long term, although increased rainfall may help
reduce those values.

Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend
and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat indices
will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for the July
4th weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Low cigs are expected to lift and eventually thin during mid to late
morning. Light, mostly SE winds will continue through the day. Wind
directions may flirt with S-SSW late in the afternoon or early in
the evening at ATL, but directions should average SSE. A few showers
are possible at ATL in the late afternoon or early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible farther S at MCN and CSG.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for morning cig improvement, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  60
Atlanta         75  94  77  94 /  10  40  10  70
Blairsville     68  89  70  88 /  10  40  20  90
Cartersville    74  96  75  95 /  10  40  20  80
Columbus        76  94  76  95 /  20  60  10  70
Gainesville     74  94  76  94 /  10  30  10  70
Macon           74  95  75  97 /  10  40  10  50
Rome            75  97  76  95 /  10  40  20  80
Peachtree City  73  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  60
Vidalia         74  95  74  97 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>005-011-
012-019>021-024-025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SEC