882
FXUS64 KEWX 030729
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The subtropical ridge is centered over AL/MS this morning and
extends to the west over TX. Surface high pressure centered over the
Gulf has the low level flow from the southeast across our CWA. The
warm, moist airmass over the region is about the same as 24 hours
ago. The pattern will not change significantly during the short term
period. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the
forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the
southeast keeping warm, moist air in place. High temperatures today
and tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Dewpoint temperatures
have mixed down into the 60s during the last few afternoons and we
expect this to continue. This will keep heat indices in the 100 to
105 range over most of the area this afternoon. Thursday afternoon
both temperatures and dewpoints will be a degree or two higher and
heat indices will approach 108 in the I-35 Corridor and Coastal
Plains. A Heat Advisory could be needed, but models have not shown
enough consistency for us to have a lot of confidence in this
forecast. We`ll wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours
before making any decision.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The beginning of the long-term portion of the forecast will see low
PoPs mainly in the northern half of the area as a weak disturbance
and convective boundary moves into the area. This upper pattern will
be a shift from the persistent ridge that has been in place across
the region. High temperatures Friday will likely remain in the upper
90s to near 103 degrees ahead of the boundary, but by Saturday and
Sunday will likely remain below the century mark for most locations.
Rain chances on Saturday will likely spread over most locations and
be highest during the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating.

The focus of the forecast for Sunday into early next week turns to
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up
doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the
National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty just south of
our CWA by the end of the current 5 day forecast, but as time passes
and without significant changes in the track forecast, the forecast
cone could be in our CWA by tomorrow. However, there does remain
uncertainty with the track forecast in the Day 4-5 time frame as
models struggle with the intensity and eventual track of Beryl as it
interacts with a weakening ridge to our east and a trough axis
working into the Central Plains that should allow the system to turn
more north at some point. We want to iterate that at this time frame
still 5-6 days out we should not focus on any one deterministic
model run, but focus on ensemble data and the official forecast from
the Hurricane Center. There will remain high uncertainty on the
eventual track of Beryl and the intensity as it makes it to the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We hope to have more confidence on the
track/strength/impacts later this week. One thing we are sure of is
to stress to anyone traveling to the beach for the the 4th of July,
that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increase by the
end of the week into the weekend. For the official forecast through
Monday, will stick close to the NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Southeasterly flow will continue through the next TAF period. Models
are not developing ceilings overnight, but we think there will be at
intermittent MVFR ceilings in the San Antonio area for a few hours
around sunrise. AUS and DRT should remain VFR. Winds will become
breezy during the afternoon at all terminals. At DRT there will be
gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 102  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78 100  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            77  99  76  97 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 104  81 103 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  97  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78 101  77 101 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...29
Aviation...05