Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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500 FXUS64 KEWX 011050 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mostly clear skies prevail across the region overnight, but expect to see some possible increase in low clouds by morning. However S/SW flow should keep the overall coverage of cloud cover lower than in previous days. Temperatures remain in the lower 80s and with the slightly less cloud cover, lows by morning should be in the middle to upper 70s for most locations. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 90s to near 102 degrees once again. However, the S/SW winds should allow for more efficient mixing this afternoon that will lead to lower dewpoints. This should keep afternoon heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria and another advisory is not needed. With the drier air, not expecting much if any isolated shower activity like previous days in the Coastal Plains. For tonight, lows should be back in the middle to upper 70s across the region with partly cloudy skies. Models are showing highs Tuesday a bit warmer with highs in the upper 90s to 103 degree range. Afternoon humidity values should remain low enough to keep heat index values from reaching advisory criteria once again. Otherwise, a pretty stable short-term period of the forecast besides && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The ridge axis will have shifted into the southeastern CONUS by Tuesday night, resulting in "slightly" cooler afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 100-108 range. As the soil continues to dry out from Spring rains, expect those slightly higher dewpoints to continue mixing out a bit more each afternoon. That should keep our heat indices down below heat advisory criteria for much of the first of week of July. Our attention turns to the tropics and the Gulf of Mexico as we approach next weekend into the following week. Hurricane Beryl is approaching the Windward Islands with significant impacts. Once the storm enters the Caribbean, it is expected to continue on its westward journey and encounter increased vertical wind shear in the central and western Caribbean by mid to late week. Beyond that, it is unclear if South Central Texas will experience any impacts from this system. The GFS has been the most consistent global model, bringing Beryl into south Texas 9 of the last 10 deterministic runs. For now, we can hope for a greatly weakened storm and perhaps some beneficial rains, but a lot still has to happen for that to come together. The best thing we can do is continue watching the trends. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 547 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Some patchy scattered to maybe broken MVFR ceilings have developed across portions of the area. Will mention a TEMPO group for the San Antonio sites to cover this. Chances for restrictions are lower for AUS and DRT. Otherwise, southerly flow is expected through the period with little impacts outside the possible MVFR ceilings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 101 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...29