Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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208 FXUS64 KEWX 040530 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A flat E-W oriented subtropical ridge runs from East TX to GA today with the western periphery over South Central TX. Light onshore flow is broad and deep from the surface to 500 hPa, but the lightness of the low level winds is helping keep low level moisture content mixed with the drier layers aloft. The pattern will not change significantly during the short term period. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Heat indices should be mainly in the 100 to 105 range over most of the area on the 4th of July holiday, but a pocket of 105-108 degree heat index will be possible east of I-35. Thus no Heat Advisories are projected at this time. Even lighter winds are projected for Thursday night, and this could result in min temps falling another degree or two. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An upper level low advancing across the northern plains into the Great Lakes region on Friday helps to send a cold front southward into north-central Texas before stalling. Any outflow advancing out ahead of the front will help to promote low end rain chances across our northern counties on Friday and into more of our region during Saturday. Rainfall chances are likely to be highest through the afternoon hours with daytime heating. The outflow and area rain is likely to help to impact and lower temperatures slightly across the area as well. Rainfall through Saturday is not associated with Beryl, which we address Beryl and beyond down below. The focus of the forecast for Sunday into next week turns to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty entering our southern counties by the end of the current 5 day forecast. However, there does remain considerable uncertainty within the forecast in the Day 5 to 7 time frame as models struggle with the intensity and eventual track of Beryl as it interacts with a weakening upper level ridge to our east across the Southeastern CONUS, upper level troughing over the central plains, and a weak TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) preceding the storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to induce some wind shear onto the storm. Even once Beryl makes landfall, we`ll also need to monitor for any additional interactions with potentially the frontal boundary located to our north or invest 96L as it approaches/enters the Western Gulf of Mexico itself. We want to re-iterate that at this time frame still 5+ days out we should not focus on any one deterministic model run, but focus on ensemble data and the official forecast from the Hurricane Center. There will remain high uncertainty on the eventual track of Beryl and the intensity as it makes it to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the weekend. Due to the uncertain track, confidence in rainfall amounts across the area in association with Beryl and after Beryl within the next 7 days, remains very low. Kept the NBM on temperatures in the Day 5 to 7 range where values are lower with the influence of the potential for greater cloud chances and rain chances across the region. All interests across our area should continue to check back frequently for future updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 All terminals are currently VFR. We are starting to see some low clouds develop in the Austin and San Antonio areas. These airports will have MVFR within the next few hours that will last until late morning. DRT should remain VFR through the entire period. Winds will continue to be southerly to southeasterly. Overnight speeds will be 5 to 10 kts picking up to 10 to 15 kts during the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible at DRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 101 78 100 78 / 0 0 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 101 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 20 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 81 103 80 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 101 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...05