059
FXUS64 KEPZ 030527
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Starting on Wednesday through the end of the week, we will see
lower rain chances across with our high temperatures running just
a few degrees above average. For the weekend, we will continue to
see warm temperatures with a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. More of the same for the start of next week, we
will see daily afternoon and even thunderstorm chances with high
temperatures running a few degrees above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

We have had several active thunderstorm days but the upper level
ridge that has been pumping the moisture into the region is
beginning to weaken and drier air will begin to push back into the
area. For tonight we will see scattered evening thunderstorms.
Clouds and showers may linger into the morning hours, and the
clouds may last into much of Wednesday. I have lowered some of our
rain chances on Wednesday because of the lack of heating but also
because the influence of the upper level ridge to our east will
be replaced by an upper level ridge to our west. The clockwise
circulation around the ridge is great when it is to our east, as
it pulls moisture up out of Mexico and into our region. But that
same clockwise rotation works against us when the upper level
ridge is to our west as it pulls drier air down into the region
from Colorado. Later in the monsoon season when more moisture is
spread all around the region, it won`t matter so much what the
wind direction is. But right now as the western ridge strengthens
it will pull drier air south for Thursday and Friday. We will
have lower (but not zero) chances for rain on Thursday and
Friday, with the best chances for rain being along the
International Border. The clouds on Wednesday will keep our high
temperatures a little below average, but then the drier air will
help the high temperatures creep a few degrees back above average
for the end of the week.

For the weekend, not much has changed aloft, with the upper level
ridge to our west sweeping in some drier air, but at the surface
an east push will allow some low level moisture to return to the
region, so we will see an uptick in thunderstorm chances this
weekend, especially on Saturday. For the start of next week, all
eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as we wait and see where
Hurricane Beryl goes. Right now all signs are pointing that we
will have no impacts from the storm in our area. For we will
continue to see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
with high temperatures running a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight.
This activity is expected to continue and gradually diminish
through the early morning hours. Showers will be mainly light in
intensity with brief periods of moderate rainfall that might briefly
reduce visibility to near MVFR categories at local TAF sites.
Ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft becoming lifting higher to
above 15 kft by 14Z.  Winds will mainly west northwest at 10 to
15kts becoming lighter after 12Z.  Thunderstorm activity is expected
to be more isolated Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Fire weather concerns will continue to be low this week. Winds
will stay well below critical levels Wednesday through the start
of next week. Min RH`s on Wednesday will be above 20% and min RH`s
on Thursday and Friday will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands
to 25 to 35% in area mountains. For the weekend, min RH`s will be
about the same in the lowlands for the weekend with 15 to 25%
readings and in near the mountains of 25 to 35%. Ventilation
rates will range from poor to fair the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81  98  80 103 /  70  50  60  40
Sierra Blanca            73  92  72  95 /  50  60  70  70
Las Cruces               75  93  75 102 /  70  40  50  20
Alamogordo               72  92  71  98 /  50  50  30  20
Cloudcroft               55  70  55  77 /  50  80  40  40
Truth or Consequences    71  88  71  99 /  60  40  20  10
Silver City              66  84  65  94 /  70  70  40  30
Deming                   72  91  71 100 /  80  50  50  20
Lordsburg                70  90  70  99 /  60  50  50  30
West El Paso Metro       78  94  78 101 /  70  50  60  30
Dell City                76  97  74 100 /  40  50  40  40
Fort Hancock             77  98  76 102 /  70  60  70  70
Loma Linda               73  88  71  93 /  70  60  60  50
Fabens                   78  97  77 102 /  70  50  70  50
Santa Teresa             76  92  75  99 /  70  50  60  30
White Sands HQ           77  92  77 100 /  70  60  50  30
Jornada Range            71  91  70 100 /  60  60  40  20
Hatch                    72  92  71 102 /  60  50  40  20
Columbus                 75  90  75  99 /  80  50  60  20
Orogrande                74  91  73  97 /  60  50  50  30
Mayhill                  60  80  61  87 /  60  80  40  40
Mescalero                60  80  59  88 /  50  70  30  30
Timberon                 60  80  59  84 /  50  70  40  40
Winston                  60  80  58  91 /  80  60  20  10
Hillsboro                68  85  69  96 /  80  60  40  20
Spaceport                68  88  67  99 /  50  50  30  10
Lake Roberts             62  84  60  93 /  80  70  30  20
Hurley                   66  87  64  96 /  60  60  30  20
Cliff                    65  93  64 102 /  60  60  30  20
Mule Creek               68  88  67  96 /  60  50  30  20
Faywood                  68  85  67  94 /  70  70  40  20
Animas                   70  89  71  98 /  80  60  50  40
Hachita                  70  88  71  98 /  80  60  60  30
Antelope Wells           69  87  69  96 /  80  70  70  60
Cloverdale               66  83  66  92 /  90  70  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers