150
FXUS64 KEPZ 061130
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
530 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The summertime pattern of afternoon and nighttime showers and
thunderstorms will continue through next week. Storms will
produce periods of hail, strong winds, and moderate to heavy
rainfall with localized flooding. Temperatures most on most days
will be near or slightly above normal, except for Sunday where
temperatures will be much warmer under mostly dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Standard summertime weather pattern of warm temperatures with
afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms will continue
most days through next week. Moisture availability for storm
development will ebb and flow, depending on the location of the
dominate high pressure circulation in the region.

For today, northwesterly circulation around high pressure
centered on the west coast will bring in drier continental type
air into New Mexico reducing chances for thunderstorms in the
northwestern and north central parts of the state. However
southern New Mexico and far west Texas remain in a more moist
environment, sustained by a moist low level east to southeast flow
bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitable water
values will range between 1.1 and 1.2 inches which is sufficient
for storm development with afternoon heating.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across area and will continue into the evening hours.
Some of the storms will become strong to near severe, capable of
producing periods of larger hail, strong winds to 50 mph, and
moderate to heavy rainfall. Some localized flooding near heavy
rainfall is possible. Thunderstorms are possible near the
Sacramento burn scars again today but, exact location remains
uncertain. With the added moisture and cloudiness this afternoon,
day time high temperatures will peak near seasonal averages which
means in the upper 90s to near 100 for lowland desert locations.

The weather pattern for Sunday will be hotter and drier as a
northwesterly circulation around the west coast high flushes out
the moisture from the local area and reduces chances for
thunderstorms. The strengthened high aloft and the drier
conditions will allow afternoon temperatures will soar into the
100s across the lowlands. Temperature values on Sunday afternoon
are expected to reach heat advisory criteria with values near 105
degrees possible for many lowland desert locations. With the
increased heat, some isolated storms remain possible, despite the
reduced moisture.

Cooler temperatures and increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur on Monday as a moist low level easterly
flow pushes back into far west Texas and southern New Mexico.
Precipitable water values will rise back above an inch which is
indicative of a more favorable environment for thunderstorm
development with afternoon heating. Increased cloudiness from the
added moisture will limit afternoon temperatures closer to
seasonal normals of upper 90s to near 100 for the lowlands.

For Tuesday through Friday of next week, the west coast high will
re-center over the four corners area putting southern New Mexico
and far west Texas under a deeper easterly and southeasterly
flow. This will help maintain moisture levels to support afternoon
and night time showers and thunderstorms through the week. At this
time the circulation around the now Four Corners high does not
appear to tap any dry continental airmass to reduce rain chances.
The bulk of our moisture to fuel thunderstorms will be coming from
the Gulf of Mexico for all of next week. Precipitable water values
will range from 1.0 to 1.2 inches which is sufficient for storm
development but should limit widespread heavy rain events.
Localized heavy rain from stronger storms may still occur with
minor flooding along drainages and arroyos possible. Burn scars
will remain sensitive to any type of rainfall with flooding
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

It will be another active day for showers and thunderstorms.
Storms will develop over northern portions and high elevations in
the early afternoon, including for KTCS. Storms will move
southward and reforming toward KDMN and KLRU between 20Z and 02Z
and will affect KELP 21Z to 03Z before dissipating for the
evening. Ceilings will be minimal before 19Z and after 03Z. During
the thunderstorm period there will mid to high level ceilings from
convective clouds and spreading anvils. Brief MVFR conditions in
moderate to heavy rainfall from any storms that occur near the TAF
sites, otherwise VFR conditions expected. Strong thunderstorm
outflow winds will bring sudden wind shifts to the area TAF sites
in the afternoon, otherwise winds will be mainly from the east
during the day and will become northwesterly in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A standard summertime pattern of afternoon and nighttime showers
and thunderstorms will continue through next week. Mountain areas
will continue to see regular thunderstorm events developing on the
higher ridgelines by mid day, spreading to other areas in the
afternoon. The lowlands will continue to get a more scattered
distribution of rain each day. Sunday will be the driest and
warmest day with shower and thunderstorm activity limited to
isolated areas of the mountains. Thunderstorms occurring over
sensitive burn scars with excessive rainfall and flooding will be
a daily occurrence through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  78 107  76 /  50  40  10  10
Sierra Blanca            91  69 100  68 /  40  40  10  10
Las Cruces               98  72 104  71 /  50  40  10  10
Alamogordo               94  69 102  64 /  40  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               71  54  78  50 /  70  30  10  10
Truth or Consequences    97  68 104  69 /  50  30  10  10
Silver City              89  67  96  65 /  40  20  10  20
Deming                   98  67 104  69 /  40  30  10  20
Lordsburg                97  68 102  70 /  30  20  10  10
West El Paso Metro       97  77 105  74 /  50  40  10  10
Dell City                94  69 105  69 /  30  20  10   0
Fort Hancock             99  73 106  71 /  50  40  10  10
Loma Linda               89  69  95  68 /  50  40  10  10
Fabens                   99  75 106  73 /  50  40  10  10
Santa Teresa             95  72 104  70 /  50  40  10  10
White Sands HQ           95  75 104  73 /  50  40  10  10
Jornada Range            97  64 103  66 /  50  40  10  10
Hatch                    97  67 104  66 /  50  30  10  20
Columbus                 99  72 104  73 /  40  40  10  20
Orogrande                94  70  99  67 /  50  30  10  10
Mayhill                  81  61  90  55 /  70  30  20  10
Mescalero                82  60  88  55 /  60  20  10  10
Timberon                 80  56  86  54 /  70  30  20  10
Winston                  89  57  94  56 /  50  20  10  10
Hillsboro                94  64 102  66 /  60  30  10  20
Spaceport                97  63 103  63 /  50  30  10  10
Lake Roberts             90  58  96  59 /  40  20  10  20
Hurley                   93  63  98  65 /  40  20  10  10
Cliff                    98  63 101  64 /  40  20  10  10
Mule Creek               94  61  98  66 /  30  20  10  10
Faywood                  92  63  98  65 /  50  30  10  20
Animas                   98  68 103  69 /  30  30  20  20
Hachita                  96  66 103  70 /  30  30  10  20
Antelope Wells           96  67 102  68 /  30  30  20  30
Cloverdale               92  64  96  66 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-
     409>411-417-427>429.

     Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415-
     416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen