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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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693 FXUS64 KEPZ 062030 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 230 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Active weather will continue next week with a little break on Sunday. The main concerns with the storms that do develop would be strong gusty winds, hail and isolated flash flooding. The temperatures will be the warmest on Sunday with much of the lowland areas in the triple digits. A backdoor cold front will push through on Monday, which will aide in lowering our temperatures by several degrees from what they would be at on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly sunny with just a few isolated storms across the northern portions of our CWA. The winds are generally light with a few breezes and the temperatures on the warm side. For the rest of this afternoon, there will be more chances for showers and thunderstorms especially across the southern CWA. The main concerns with these storms will be strong gusty winds, hail and isolated flash flooding. For tonight, any lingering storms will diminish by around 9 pm. For the rest of the evening and overnight hours, expect quiet weather conditions. The winds will be light to breezy, the skies mostly clear with the low temperatures on Sunday morning above the normal for this time of the year. For Sunday, conditions will be much more quiet than they would be this afternoon. Dry air will move in as high pressure builds in across the Pacific West. Due to this, the chances for storms on Sunday will be less than 15%. Did not mentioned any storms in the forecast on Sunday as PWAT values would be way below the climatological normal. With ridging aloft, a decrease in cloud coverage and precipitation, the high temperatures especially in the lowlands would be 6 to 12 degrees above the normal for this time of the year. Due to this, a Heat Advisory continue to be in effect from 11 AM Sunday until 6 AM Monday. For the rest of the period, we will see daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Also, a back door cold front will try to make its way across much of our CWA, which will bring cooler temperatures mainly east of the Continental Divide. Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday afternoon as the front pushes through our area. Tuesday through Saturday there would be some residual and advected moisture that will aide in storm chances each day. The Pacific ridge will meander across the Pacific South through the middle of next week. This would allow for the lowland temperatures to not be as hot as they were the past couple of weeks; however, the center of this ridge will gradually move over the Rockies allowing for lowland temperatures to creep back into the triple digits toward the end of the week and into the weekend. As of now, the only way for the temperatures for El Paso would not reach triple digits is if an easterly wave moves across the southern periphery of the ridge. There is uncertainty that this will occur with the GFS suggesting it occurring while the ECMWF keeps the wave further to our south. Whether the easterly wave passes over us or not, we will see active weather conditions toward the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW100-SCT250. The winds are generally light at this time and should continue to be so at least across most of the sites. However, the winds at KTCS is low end breezy 11-13 kts with gust up to 21 kts and from the southwest through 00Z Sunday. The winds will become light at this site and remain generally light across the rest of the terminals thereafter. There maybe a few TS in the VCTS and even across the sites between 19 and 01Z Sunday (not mentioned in the TAFs due to low confidence). Will amend the TAFs when possible should TS occur within 10 miles of the terminals. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For the rest of this afternoon, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the much of the zones. The main concerns with these storms are gusty winds, hail and isolated flash flooding. Any storms that linger this evening should diminish by around 9 pm. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Sunday, dry air will move in, which will limit our precipitation chances. The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy and temperatures above the normal. Sunday overnight recovery will be fair to excellent. For the rest of the period, there will be daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The winds will be light to windy and the temperatures below the normal mainly east of the Divide. With that being said, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical on Sunday with no concerns the rest of the period. The min RHs on Sunday will be below 15% areawide. The min RHs on Monday will be below 15% west of the Divide and vice versa to the east of the Divide. The ventilation rates will be very good to excellent on Sunday then poor to excellent on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 106 76 99 / 30 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 69 99 68 93 / 20 0 0 30 Las Cruces 71 105 71 99 / 20 0 10 10 Alamogordo 70 101 65 95 / 10 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 54 78 49 70 / 10 0 10 60 Truth or Consequences 67 102 69 94 / 10 0 10 20 Silver City 65 96 65 93 / 20 10 10 30 Deming 67 104 69 99 / 30 0 10 10 Lordsburg 68 102 70 101 / 20 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 76 103 74 98 / 30 0 10 10 Dell City 70 103 69 93 / 20 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 72 105 71 100 / 30 0 0 20 Loma Linda 70 96 68 88 / 30 0 0 20 Fabens 74 104 74 99 / 30 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 72 102 71 96 / 30 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 75 102 74 96 / 20 0 10 20 Jornada Range 66 102 66 96 / 20 0 10 20 Hatch 65 105 66 99 / 20 0 10 20 Columbus 72 104 74 100 / 40 0 10 10 Orogrande 70 100 68 93 / 30 0 10 20 Mayhill 59 90 54 75 / 10 0 10 60 Mescalero 58 89 54 80 / 10 0 10 60 Timberon 56 88 54 79 / 20 0 10 50 Winston 57 94 56 88 / 10 0 10 30 Hillsboro 65 100 66 92 / 20 10 10 30 Spaceport 62 102 64 95 / 10 0 10 30 Lake Roberts 58 96 60 93 / 20 10 10 40 Hurley 63 99 65 95 / 20 10 10 30 Cliff 63 105 64 104 / 10 10 10 30 Mule Creek 67 99 67 97 / 10 10 10 20 Faywood 65 99 66 93 / 20 10 10 30 Animas 68 102 70 102 / 20 0 10 20 Hachita 67 102 70 100 / 30 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 67 101 69 100 / 30 10 10 20 Cloverdale 65 96 66 97 / 30 10 10 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407- 409>411-417-427>429. Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira