319
FXUS64 KEPZ 080532
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1132 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After a break in the active weather conditions today, showers and
thunderstorm activities will return our area on Monday and
continue on throughout the week and into the weekend. The main
concerns with these storms will be strong winds and heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. A cold front will push
through on Monday bringing cooler temperatures than what is
expected today across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently, the skies are sunny, the winds at the surface are
generally light and the temperatures are on the very warm side.
Quiet conditions with hot temperatures are expected the rest of
this afternoon. For tonight, the winds will be light to possibly
low end breezy with clear skies. High pressure is going to be
overhead; thus, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be
above the normal for this time of the year. For Monday, high
pressure will weakened somewhat across our area as a trough digs
across the Plains. Also, as this trough sags south, it will send a
backdoor cold front across much of the area east of the
Continental Divide during the day on Monday. As the front moves
through, the relative humidity will increase. This will aide in a
few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon mainly across the
Otero and Hudspeth counties. Due to the passage of the cold front,
the high temperatures will be below the average across the
Sierra, Otero and Hudspeth counties. For Monday night, any
lingering showers and thunderstorms that will be present will
dissipate by the evening hours leaving the rest of the night
mainly quiet. The winds will be breezy to low end windy as a
strong boundary moves across the area.

For the rest of the period, active weather conditions will
gradually increase areawide mainly in the mountains at first then
across the lowlands. We will see daily chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms as both advected and residual
moisture will be present. High pressure across the Pacific South
West will gradually move into the Rockies and then into the
Plains through the end of the period. As this ridge moves up into
the Rockies, an easterly wave will move along the southern
periphery of it. This will allow for an increase in showers and
thunderstorm activities across the Borderland. The main concerns
will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, strong
gusty winds and possibly non severe hail. The high temperatures
will continue to be in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

We will have light winds with unlimited ceilings the rest of tonight.
A back door cold front will move across the region during the
morning hours on Monday. This front will swing our winds around to
the northeast or east. Winds could be gusty, especially along
western slopes of area mountains. The winds will get stronger
through the afternoon into the evening hours of Monday, before
slowing back down late Monday night. There may be a few
thunderstorms, east of the Rio Grande Monday afternoon, but right
now coverage doesn`t look that great. Better thunderstorm chances
come on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Dry air will be in place for the rest of this afternoon, which
will limit our precipitation chances. Tonight recovery will be
fair to very good. For Monday, some moisture will move back in
especially across east of the Rio Grande. Also, a backdoor cold
front will move in bringing cooler temperatures and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the zones 113 and 056. The 20ft
winds will be light to low end windy and the temperatures below
the normal mainly east of the Rio Grande and in the Black Range
mountains. For Tuesday, moisture will spread across the rest of
the area with a chance for showers and thunderstorms across much
of the region. For the rest of the period, active weather will
continue as moisture lingers across the area. With that being
said, there will be no fire weather concerns for much of the
period except on Monday along the Divide.

The min RHs on Monday will be below 10% along and west of the
Divide and vice versa elsewhere. The min RHs on Tuesday will
increase 5 to 10% across the entire zones. The ventilation rates
will be poor to excellent on Monday then poor to very good on
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 108  76 101  74 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca            99  68  93  65 /   0   0  10  30
Las Cruces              106  72 100  70 /   0   0  10  30
Alamogordo              102  67  95  64 /   0   0  20  30
Cloudcroft               80  50  70  47 /   0   0  40  40
Truth or Consequences   103  70  93  66 /   0   0  10  30
Silver City              97  66  95  62 /  10  10  20  30
Deming                  105  70 100  68 /   0  10  10  40
Lordsburg               103  71 103  69 /   0   0  10  30
West El Paso Metro      105  75  98  71 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               104  69  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Hancock            107  72 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               97  69  89  64 /   0   0  10  20
Fabens                  107  73  99  71 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            104  71  97  70 /   0   0   0  30
White Sands HQ          103  73  95  70 /   0   0  10  30
Jornada Range           103  67  96  65 /   0   0  10  30
Hatch                   106  67  99  65 /   0   0  10  30
Columbus                104  76 100  70 /   0  10   0  40
Orogrande               101  68  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
Mayhill                  92  54  74  53 /   0   0  50  40
Mescalero                90  54  79  52 /   0   0  40  30
Timberon                 89  54  79  51 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                  95  59  87  55 /   0   0  20  30
Hillsboro               101  67  92  62 /  10  10  20  40
Spaceport               102  64  95  62 /   0   0  10  30
Lake Roberts             97  60  94  57 /  10  10  20  40
Hurley                  100  66  96  62 /  10  10  10  30
Cliff                   106  65 105  64 /  10   0  10  30
Mule Creek               99  68  98  65 /  10  10  10  20
Faywood                  99  67  94  63 /  10  10  10  40
Animas                  103  71 103  67 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                 102  71 101  66 /   0   0  10  30
Antelope Wells          102  70 101  66 /   0  10  10  40
Cloverdale               97  67  97  65 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-409>411-417-
     427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen