Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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373 FXUS64 KEPZ 020540 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1140 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Daily storm chances will continue with Wednesday and Saturday anticipated to be the most active days while Thursday and Friday see a decrease in thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will run near or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 We are in a typical monsoonal pattern this afternoon. High pressure is centered east of Dallas, with an east-west oriented ridge axis extending from our CWA to AL. This has directed the richer portion of the moist plume west of the Divide with some drier air trying to move into Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Of note, there is a well defined swirl near Pecos, TX. It seems its only impact to the CWA is perhaps some subsidence to eastern areas. Either way, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout the afternoon with highest chances west of the Rio Grande. Beginning Tuesday, our portion of the ridge will begin to weaken, allowing better moisture to move into NM and Far W. TX. The HRRR shows an uptick in thunderstorm coverage, possibly picking up on the fact there will be height falls ahead of an approaching UL trough axis. By Wednesday the ridge will have completely opened up for our area with one center off the Pacific Coast and the other centered toward the Southeast. Wednesday is expected to be our most active day with a passing trough axis, rich moisture, and height falls. Flash flooding would be the main concern. For Thursday and Friday, drier air will move in from the north and northwest, greatly limiting thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will climb for Thursday, but a side door/ back door front will cut temperatures back down for Friday. This front will also allow moisture to return increasing thunderstorm chances for late Friday and especially Saturday. Drier air filters back in via NW flow aloft on Sunday, once again lowering storm chances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight but will continue to diminish through the overnight hours. Mid and high level clouds expected to remain into the afternoon hours with better coverage for KDMN and KTCS. Light winds overnight and into the afternoon tomorrow, but another round of afternoon monsoonal thunderstorms is expected, possibly with better coverage than what we saw today. All TAFs sites have a chance to see a thunderstorm tomorrow in the mid-afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard, but plentiful lightning and small hail also possible with strong storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No significant fire concerns anticipated for the period. Monsoonal moisture continues in place with moisture anticipated to increase for Wednesday. This will lead to at least scattered thunderstorms with the best chances for precipitation in the mountains and west of the Rio Grande, spreading across the entire area by Wednesday. Min RH values will be in the 20s with recoveries into at least the 50s. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorm influences. Venting will range good to very good for Tuesday, decreasing to fair to good for Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 81 103 81 101 / 20 30 50 60 Sierra Blanca 72 96 72 95 / 10 20 50 60 Las Cruces 75 101 76 98 / 20 40 40 60 Alamogordo 69 97 71 95 / 20 30 40 50 Cloudcroft 54 75 56 73 / 30 60 50 80 Truth or Consequences 72 93 72 93 / 40 70 30 50 Silver City 66 88 67 87 / 40 70 50 70 Deming 71 98 73 97 / 30 40 50 60 Lordsburg 70 95 71 93 / 50 60 50 60 West El Paso Metro 78 101 79 98 / 20 30 60 60 Dell City 73 101 75 100 / 10 20 30 50 Fort Hancock 76 103 76 102 / 20 20 50 60 Loma Linda 72 94 73 93 / 20 30 50 70 Fabens 78 103 77 100 / 20 30 50 60 Santa Teresa 74 99 76 96 / 20 30 60 60 White Sands HQ 76 98 79 96 / 20 40 50 70 Jornada Range 71 98 71 95 / 20 50 40 60 Hatch 71 99 73 97 / 30 50 40 60 Columbus 73 98 75 95 / 30 30 60 60 Orogrande 72 98 74 95 / 20 30 50 60 Mayhill 59 85 61 84 / 20 60 40 80 Mescalero 58 85 60 84 / 30 60 40 70 Timberon 57 84 59 83 / 20 50 40 80 Winston 60 83 61 83 / 50 90 40 70 Hillsboro 68 92 70 90 / 40 70 50 80 Spaceport 67 95 69 93 / 30 60 40 60 Lake Roberts 62 88 62 86 / 40 80 50 70 Hurley 66 92 66 90 / 40 60 40 60 Cliff 66 97 67 95 / 40 60 30 50 Mule Creek 67 90 69 90 / 50 60 40 40 Faywood 68 91 69 90 / 40 60 50 70 Animas 68 95 71 91 / 50 60 50 60 Hachita 68 95 70 92 / 40 50 60 60 Antelope Wells 69 94 70 90 / 50 70 70 80 Cloverdale 67 90 67 85 / 40 60 60 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ414>416. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt