681
FXUS64 KEPZ 060549
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Much of the next week will see near average temperatures and daily
thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rain the main threat. The
one day where it will be very hot and dry will be Sunday when
high temperatures get well above 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the most part, a fairly persistent pattern across the region
for the upcoming week. Upper high currently centered just off the
Northern CA Coast will drift slowly southeast into the Great Basin
by the end of the period with a series of disturbances in
northwest flow aloft keeping a chance for showers and
thunderstorms going almost daily except Sunday.

Tonight we will see storms develop off the higher elevation,
mainly along and east of the RGV then moving south. Main threat
will be locally heavy rain with shear not very impressive. Some
models showing hints of some after midnight activity, not overly
convinced of this given PW`s still on the low side, but there is
some instability aloft that could allow a couple isolated cells to
develop. Generally the same setup for Sat, but instability and
moisture push further west, so could get storms CWA-wide, but
again lacking shear for much organized severe. Saturday will see
highs similar to today with most areas remaining below 100.

Sunday is the one day different than the others. Low level flow
turns west to northwest and brings in much drier, more stable air
resulting in a day with little to no storm coverage and hot
temperatures. Looks like most lowland areas will be above 100
degrees with up to 108 possible. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
Sunday.

Moisture starts pushing back in Monday, how far is still
uncertain. GFS continues to show strong push during the day
through much of the CWA while the EC and NAM have a weaker push
only to the Rio Grande. Ensemble means for each respective model
support their operational. This is one time where the NAM
typically has a better handle on low level features, and since
it`s more in line with the EC, will use that for this forecast.
This means moisture mainly east with temperatures still up near
100 for areas along and west of the Rio Grande and gradually
cooling down to the east. Highs will be cooler than Sunday, so do
not think Heat Advisory will need to be extended.

Tue-Fri are all fairly similar with N to NE flow over the region.
Not really any mid/high level moisture present, but low level east
to southeast flow will keep dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Not a true monsoonal pattern since even with the low level E/SE
winds, trajectories aren`t from the Gulf thanks in part to Beryl.
Daily thunderstorm chances expected though. Main threat will be
heavy rain, even though PW`s never get much above 1.1-1.2", wind
profile supports training/back building storms. Temperatures will
be near average with mainly mid to upper 90s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

This evening`s active weather is ending with lingering storms in
Hudspeth county expected to last a couple of more hours. A large
thunderstorm complex over northern Mexico, well to the southwest
of KDMN, is throwing a large band of high clouds across our region
which will give us high ceilings tonight of BKN250. On Saturday,
it looks like it could be another active day for thunderstorms. We
will likely have some mid and high ceilings of BKN120-250 and we
could have some brief lower ceilings of BKN070 associated with a
thunderstorm. Strong outflow winds will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. It is too early to tell if any of our
airports will be directly impacted by a thunderstorms, but have
put in prob30 groups into the TAF`s for the afternoon. so I have
left the mention out of the TAF`s. Winds tonight will stay light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Much of the next week will see daily shower and thunderstorm
chances as decent low level moisture will be around. The main
threat will be locally heavy rain with concerns for recent burn
scars.  The one exception will be Sunday when a quick turn of
winds to the west bring high temperatures above 100 for the
lowlands with RH`s into the single digits and teens. Winds Sunday
will also be 10-20 mph at times creating near critical fire
conditions. Other days will see RH`s in the mid teens to mid 20s
with lowest RH`s being in the lowlands west of the Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  75  99  78 /  40  20  50  40
Sierra Blanca            90  67  91  69 /  50  40  40  40
Las Cruces               99  72  98  72 /  30  20  50  40
Alamogordo               95  65  94  69 /  50  20  40  20
Cloudcroft               71  49  71  54 /  80  30  70  30
Truth or Consequences    96  70  97  68 /  20  20  50  30
Silver City              92  66  89  67 /  20  10  40  20
Deming                   99  70  98  67 /  20  20  40  30
Lordsburg                99  70  97  68 /  20  10  30  20
West El Paso Metro       97  74  97  77 /  40  30  50  40
Dell City                94  69  94  69 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Hancock             98  72  99  73 /  50  30  50  40
Loma Linda               89  66  89  69 /  50  20  50  40
Fabens                   98  70  99  75 /  50  20  50  40
Santa Teresa             96  71  95  72 /  40  20  50  40
White Sands HQ           96  72  95  75 /  50  20  50  40
Jornada Range            96  66  97  64 /  40  20  50  40
Hatch                   100  67  97  67 /  20  10  50  30
Columbus                 98  72  99  72 /  20  20  40  40
Orogrande                94  68  94  70 /  40  20  50  30
Mayhill                  78  54  81  61 /  80  30  70  30
Mescalero                82  53  82  60 /  70  30  60  20
Timberon                 79  52  80  56 /  80  20  70  30
Winston                  88  57  89  57 /  20  20  50  20
Hillsboro                94  65  94  64 /  20  10  60  30
Spaceport                96  65  97  63 /  20  20  50  30
Lake Roberts             93  55  90  58 /  20  10  40  20
Hurley                   94  64  93  63 /  20  10  40  20
Cliff                   102  60  98  63 /  20  10  40  20
Mule Creek               97  59  94  61 /  20  10  40  20
Faywood                  94  65  92  63 /  20  10  50  30
Animas                   99  69  98  68 /  20  10  30  30
Hachita                  97  67  96  66 /  20  10  30  30
Antelope Wells           97  68  96  67 /  30  20  30  30
Cloverdale               94  66  92  64 /  30  10  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-
     409>411-417-427>429.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen