742
AXPZ20 KNHC 031540
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
area of low pressure, analyzed near 14.5N104W, with a pressure of
1008 mb. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development of this system, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form within the next day or so while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is forecast to
move over cooler waters on Friday, and thereafter further
development is not expected. This system has a medium chance for
tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern part of the area has its axis
along 88W north of 10N. The wave is moving westward around 10
kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis N of 08N and E
of 91W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to low pres near 14.5N104W
to 07N129W. The ITCZ continues from 07N129W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the low.
Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore
waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are
present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light
to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the offshore
waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop offshore the coast of southern Mexico through
the end of the week due to increasing moisture associated with
the aforementioned broad area of low pressure described above
under Special Features. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface
trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure
west of the area will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds
along the Gulf of California today. These winds will diminish
early on Thu. Fresh to strong north gap winds are expected in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly
fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of
southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters
are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore from southern
Colombia, Ecuador to the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts
of Guatemala and El Salvador, and also offshore Colombia north
of 04N. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Thu, then increase to fresh to locally strong and continue
through early Fri mainly north of about 05N. Seas will build to
8 ft in this area of stronger winds. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast
waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1034 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge
covers the waters north of 15N and west of 120W. Moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds are north of 20N west of 125W.
Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north
of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to
gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 7 to 9 ft
in south swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W
to continue through Fri, than expand eastward through the
weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to
9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift
westward by tonight to north of 27N and between 126W and 136W.

$$
ERA