866
AXPZ20 KNHC 040324
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91): Showers and thunderstorms
associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization. This low is analyzed near 15N105W
with a minimum central pressure of 1008 mb. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 15N to 17N between 103W and 107W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some further
development of this system during the next day or so, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form during that time. On
Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and
development after that time is not expected. The disturbance is
forecast to move northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt,
remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This
system has a medium chance for tropical formation within the next
48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to low pres near 15N106W 1008 mb to 08N128W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N128W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 85W and 91W.
Scattered showers are noted from 08N to 11N between 107W and
128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing
for light to gentle winds over the offshore waters. Seas across
the Baja California offshore waters range from 5 to 7 ft within
mostly NW swell with southerly swell noted south of Cabo San
Lucas. Across the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, 6 to 8
ft seas are noted with 8 ft seas near EP91, within mostly S
swell. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh southerly
winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
between Acapulco and Manzanillo related to the Special Features
low pres center.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the offshore the coast of southern Mexico through
the end of the week due to increasing moisture associated with
the aforementioned broad area of low pressure described above
under Special Features. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface
trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure
west of the area will continue to induce moderate to fresh
southeast winds along the Gulf of California through early Thu.
Fresh to strong north gap winds and rough seas are expected in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.
Meanwhile, mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over
the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of
08N are 5 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with
slightly higher seas of 5 to 8 ft S of 08N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue through
Fri night across the Central America offshore waters. Seas will
increase to 8 ft in the area of stronger and persistent winds
tonight into Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few
days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of
the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1033 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge
covers the waters north of 15N and west of 130W. Moderate
northeast to east winds are north of 15N west of 130W. Gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ. Seas 7 to 9 ft within NW swell are noted N of 28N between
126W and 136W. Seas elsewhere are 5 to 7 ft over these waters.
Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W along with seas of 7
to 9 ft in south swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
to continue through Fri, then expand eastward through the
weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly later Sat into SUn to 5 to 7 ft in long-period
south swell. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of
the Baja California Norte offshore waters will develop by Fri and
move west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by
moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 28N will propagate westward
through Thu night where seas will subside below 8 ft.

$$
AReinhart