Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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069 AXPZ20 KNHC 020731 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 02 2024 Corrected forecast under Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the far eastern part of the area. It has its axis along 80W north of 04N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 76W and 79W, and from 05N to 08N between 81W and 83W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of Panama over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia, west-southwestward to southern Costa Rica, to 09N88W, then northwestward to 14N95W and westward to a 1010 mb low near 12N107W, then to 11N119W and southwestward to 08N126W and to 08N130W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 91W and 93W and from 10N to 13N between 101W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 135W and 140W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 106W and 110W and within 30 nm south of the trough between 124W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected A rather weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters where seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are ongoing along with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident from just inland southern Mexico, extending westward out over the offshore waters west of that section of Mexico. Scattered to strong convection moving northwestward is just inland western Mexico, reaching northward to near the Arizona/New Mexico border. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue along and offshore the coast of southern Mexico through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas over the Mexican offshore waters through this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight and Tue. The gradient between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will induce moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia as well as the offshore zones between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas across these waters are in 4 to 6 ft due to long-period south swell, with slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador and seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters between Colombia and Costa Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast period, except south of the monsoon trough southerly winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds starting Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure of 1037 mb that is located well north of the area near 42N140W. The ridge covers the waters north of 19N and west of about 125W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 13N and west of a line from 30N129W to 22N127W to 13N138W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W south of the monsoon through this evening. Southerly swell with seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between 97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast to peak to around 9 ft Wed through Thu night between 126W and 137W. $$ Aguirre