700
AXPZ20 KNHC 051513
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Aletta is centered near 18.8N 109.8W at
05/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60
nm of the center of the depression. Seas are still likely near
10 ft close to the center. Aletta will likely become a remnant
low later today or tonight and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 10N127W. The ITCZ extends from 10N127W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N E of 91W,
and from 09N to 12N between 113W-124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Aletta.

Pressures are generally lowering across northern Central America
and southern Mexico, ahead of Hurricane Beryl in the northwest
Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to occasionally
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as
noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Farther north, an
earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh southerly winds over the
northern Gulf of California, associated with slightly lower than
normal pressure across the southern Colorado River Valley.

For the forecast, Aletta will move to 18.5N 111.1W this evening,
become a remnant low and move to 18.2N 112.6W Sat morning, 18.2N
114.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Farther south,
fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of
California into early next week associated with lower pressure
over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle
to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the
offshore waters. Seas across the waters north of 08N are 5 to 6
ft range due to long-period south swell. South of 08N, seas are
5 to 7 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the Central America offshore waters through tonight, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the
forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1018 mb high pressure is centered near 32N127W. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in
earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Northerly swell to 8 ft
is noted across the waters north of 26N and W of 135W. Moderate
seas prevail elsewhere, except for a small area of seas to 8 ft
near the equator at 140W due to southerly swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W
through today, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly
by late Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.

$$
ERA