795
AXPZ20 KNHC 081500
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 06N to across
portions of Guatemala, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W north of 04N to across
portions of Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 21N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N76W to 09N86W to 12N113W to 08N120W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 77W and 81W,
and from 04N to 14N between 109W and 114W. Similar convection is
noted within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of
Mexico, including in the Gulf of California, except locally fresh
N of 30N. Seas are 4-5 ft, dominated by S to SW swell. Seas are 3
ft or less in the Gulf of California, except around 4 ft near the
entrance.

For the forecast, N winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight through Wed morning, with
moderate to fresh winds there otherwise through Thu. Winds may
strengthen in the northern Gulf of California late in the week.
Moderate to fresh winds will be offshore Baja California, locally
strong Wed night just S of Punta Baja. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas will prevail across
the open waters over the next several days. An area of low
pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of SW Mexico
late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to only be
marginally conducive for development of this system as it moves
to the west-northwest, well off the coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo,
with moderate winds extending downstream of the Papagayo region.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range, except to 7 ft downstream of the Papagayo region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed morning, diminishing to moderate to
fresh thereafter. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over the
regional waters during the period, building near rough S of the
Galapagos Islands late in the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. A weak
1012 mb low is analyzed near 19.5N117W with shower activity in
the vicinity. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open
waters. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft across the open waters, except to
7 ft S of 20N and W of 130W, as well as S of 02N and W of 105W.

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are anticipated
over the next few days. Cross equatorial, rough southerly swell
will move into the waters S of 06N and W of 100W by the middle
of the week, persisting into the weekend. Seas may build to near
8 ft in fresh N swell along 30N between 120W and 130W at the end
of the week into the weekend. Winds may freshen in the NW waters
by the weekend, as well as S of the ITCZ.

$$
Lewitsky