080
AXPZ20 KNHC 032110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico have become a little better organized since this morning.
The low is currently analyzed near 14N105W, with a minimum
pressure of 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection prevails from
10N-19N between 102W-109W. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted in the
vicinity of the low. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some further development of this system during the next day
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression could form during
that time. On Friday, the system is forecast to move over cooler
waters and development after that time is not expected. The
disturbance is forecast to move northward to northwestward at 10
to 15 kt, remaining offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation
within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern part of the area has its axis
along 95W north of 08N. The wave is moving westward around 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N
between 93W-98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N130W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered showers are
noted along the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for light to
gentle winds over the offshore waters. Seas range from 3 to 6
ft. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh southerly winds
are present along with seas of 2 to 5 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
between Acapulco and Manzanillo related to the Special Features
low pres center.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the offshore the coast of southern Mexico through
the end of the week due to increasing moisture associated with
the aforementioned broad area of low pressure described above
under Special Features. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface
trough along the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure
west of the area will continue to induce moderate to fresh
southeast winds along the Gulf of California through early Thu.
Fresh to strong north gap winds are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region Thu night through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia, while
mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder
of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of 08N are in
the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with slightly
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 08N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue through
the weekend across the offshore waters. Seas will increase to 8
ft in the area of stronger and persistent winds. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the forecast
waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and locally rough
seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1033 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge
covers the waters north of 15N and west of 130W. Moderate
northeast to east winds are north of 15N west of 130W. Gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle
northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W along with seas of 7 to 9
ft in south swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
to continue through Fri, than expand eastward through the
weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters will weaken by the end of the
week while moving west, then another pulse of fresh winds will
develop this weekend with moderate seas. These conditions will
continue through early next week.

$$
ERA