830
AXPZ20 KNHC 041531
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 17.0N 105.9W at
04/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 16N
to 19N between 105W and 108W. Seas will peak to 10 ft with this
system. Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by
gradual weakening tonight and Friday. The system is forecast to
become a remnant low by Friday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 16N107W to 08N132W. The ITCZ extends from 08N132W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N
to 14N between 88W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression One-E.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area. This is
allowing for light to gentle winds over the offshore waters as
confirmed by the overnight scatterometer data. Seas across the
Baja California offshore waters range from 5 to 7 ft within
mostly NW swell with southerly swell noted south of Cabo San
Lucas. Across the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, 6 to 8
ft seas are noted with 8 ft seas near EP91, within mostly S
swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly
winds are present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Jalisco and Michoacan related to EP91.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression One-E will move to 17.7N
107.0W this evening, 17.8N 108.6W Fri morning, become a remnant
low and move to 17.5N 109.9W Fri evening, 17.0N 111.5W Sat
morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Otherwise, the gradient
between a surface trough along the Baja California Peninsula and
high pressure west of the area will continue to support moderate
to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California through the
weekend. Fresh to strong north gap winds and rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Meanwhile,
mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder
of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of 08N are 5 to
6 ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5
to 8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Panama and
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of
the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1031 mb that is located well north of the area. The ridge
covers the waters north of 20N and west of 130W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts mostly light to gentle winds north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Locally moderate winds are noted N
of 20N and W of 130W. An area of seas 8 to 9 ft within N to NE
swell is noted N of 27N between 125W and 137W. Otherwise, seas
range 5 to 7 ft in the area. Meanwhile, south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are
noted. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within S swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 100W
through Fri, then expand beyond 100W through the weekend. Seas
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly
later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move
west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by
moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward
through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft.

$$
ERA