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Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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752 AXPZ20 KNHC 012205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W to 14N96W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 12N106W to 10N120W to 08N125W where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 10N E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 15N between 87W and 112W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters where seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are ongoing along with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Chris inland SE Mexico continue to affect the offshore waters of Tehuantepec, Chiapas and Oaxaca. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and near the coast of southern Mexico through this evening. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas over the Mexican offshore waters through this evening. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight and Tue. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula, and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed. Otherwise,a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid- to late- week while it moves west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ongoing across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia as well as the offshore zones between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas across these regions are 3 to 5 ft due to long-period south swell. However, strong winds and moderate to rough seas are likely ongoing across the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica where scattered heavy showers and tstms are occurring. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across most of the area through the week. Stronger winds to near gale force are likely to continue south of the monsoon trough and over the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through Fri as scattered to numerous heavy showers are forecast to continue in the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure of 1035 mb that is located well north of the area near 42N141W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast winds are present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W south of the monsoon through this evening. Southerly swell with seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between 97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast to peak to about 10 ft Wed through Thu between 128W and 136W. $$ Ramos