752
AXPZ20 KNHC 012205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 14N96W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 12N106W to
10N120W to 08N125W where it transitions to the ITCZ, which
continues beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 04N to 10N E of 85W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 15N between 87W and 112W, and from 05N
to 12N between 120W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore waters
where seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell. In the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are ongoing along
with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with 4
to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants
of Tropical Depression Chris inland SE Mexico continue to affect
the offshore waters of Tehuantepec, Chiapas and Oaxaca.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue along and near the coast of southern Mexico through this
evening. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will
generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined
seas over the Mexican offshore waters through this evening.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast
to affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight and
Tue. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula, and a tighter
pressure gradient will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds
along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed.
Otherwise,a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a
day or two a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form mid- to late-
week while it moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ongoing across the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia as well as the offshore
zones between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands. Seas across these
regions are 3 to 5 ft due to long-period south swell. However,
strong winds and moderate to rough seas are likely ongoing
across the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica where
scattered heavy showers and tstms are occurring. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the area through the week. Stronger winds to near gale
force are likely to continue south of the monsoon trough and over
the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters through Fri as scattered
to numerous heavy showers are forecast to continue in the
region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1035 mb that is located well north of the area near 42N141W.
The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of
the ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast
winds are present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds
are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh east to southeast
winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through this evening. Southerly swell with
seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between
97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds
will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters
tonight. The northerly swell will shift westward through the
week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast
to peak to about 10 ft Wed through Thu between 128W and 136W.

$$
Ramos