257
AXPZ20 KNHC 030318
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disorganized scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection located a few hundred miles offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico, roughly from 10N to 16N between 99W and
105W, is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of
days while it moves northward to northwestward remaining offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a medium
chance for tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the eastern part of the area has its axis
along 84W north of 03N. It is moving westward around 10 kt.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side
of the axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from along the coast of Colombia
westward to central Costa Rica to 10N85W to 10N90W, northwestward
to 14N97W, then southwestward to 10N112W and westward to low
pressure of 1010 mb near 10N122W and southwestward to 07N128W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 10N135W and to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm south of the trough between 110W
and 114W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 106W and 110W
and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 128W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
broad area of low pressure that is well offshore southern Mexico
with potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over the Baja California offshore
waters. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft N of 25N, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere. In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds are
present along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light
to gentle with 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue offshore the coast of southern Mexico through the end
of the week due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. The
gradient between a surface trough along the Baja California
Peninsula and high pressure west of the area will induce moderate
to fresh southeast winds along the Gulf of California on Wed.
Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure currently along the
monsoon trough with disorganized showers and thunderstorms could
form into a tropical depression during the next couple of days
while it moves northward to northwestward remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are present over
the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama while mostly
fresh southwest winds are over the offshore waters west of
southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas across these waters
are in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long-period south swell, with
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador to the
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are just offshore southern Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere
along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
Thu, then increase to fresh to strong and continue through Fri
mainly N of 05N. Seas will build to 8 ft in this area of stronger
winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected over most of the forecast waters through the next few
days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas may accompany some of
the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from strong high pressure
of 1035 mb that is located well north of the area near 43N139W.
The ridge covers the waters north of about 20N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the
ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle
northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough.
Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W along with seas of 6 to 8
ft.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W
to continue through Fri, than expand eastward through the
weekend. Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to
subside slightly to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters are accompanied by seas of 8 to
9 ft in north to northeast swell. These conditions will shift
westward by Wed night to north of 27N and between 127W and 136W.

$$
Aguirre