574
FXUS63 KEAX 050819
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
319 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures expected this weekend with much less
humidity.

- Thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday night into Sunday and
continue Sunday night.

- Seasonal temperatures likely mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A cooler and drier air mass is moving into the area this morning
with dew points falling into the lower 60s and air temperatures in
the middle 60s early this morning. That cooler and drier high
pressure area will push through eastern KS and western MO through
the day, leading to slightly below normal temperatures with highs in
the low to mid 80s. But it will be the cooler dew point temperatures
in the 60s that will lead to much lower humidity values this
afternoon compared to previous days. That high pressure will move to
our south tonight into Saturday, with winds becoming southerly to
southwesterly again. This will help to warm temperatures up to be
close to normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday. Dew
points will be slower to respond though and we`ll see another day
with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Southerly low-level flow will strengthen Saturday night, with a
low-level jet of 35-40kts nosing into the area ahead of a
subtle mid-level shortwave. This will bring the initial chances
for showers and storms to the area, likely after midnight
Saturday night/ Sunday morning, and mainly for the northwestern
third of the forecast. Those chances spread south and east
through the day Sunday as broad upper troughing digs into the
central and northern Plains and another mid-level shortwave
tracks east out of KS. Severe weather chances look low Sunday
afternoon as instability looks limited, mainly due to increased
cloud cover and likely ongoing showers/ storms. But shear also
looks relatively weak due to weaker mid and upper flow. With
increased cloud cover and good potential for showers and storms
in the area, highs again look to be slightly below normal with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s likely. This trend of
increased cloud cover and potential for showers and storms
continues into Monday ahead of a stronger shortwave trough
moving through the region.

Temperatures trend back to near normal levels from Tuesday through
the end of the week, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows
in the mid to upper 60s expected. This looks to be mostly due to the
anomalously low 500mb heights, prevalent earlier in the week,
eroding and trending to more neutral values or even slight positive
anomalies, by the end of the week. Additionally, as that upper
troughing shifts east, it likely will take the moisture associated
with what`s left of Beryl southeast of the forecast area late
next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light west-
northwesterly winds will increase slightly during the day and
trend to the northwest. A few gusts into the low 20kt range look
possible. It also looks like we`ll see scattered diurnal CU.
Winds weaken and skies clear after 00Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB