866
FXUS63 KEAX 031734
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low probability of severe weather this afternoon, with
  potential for heavy rain in west central and central MO this
  evening.

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Ongoing early morning convection has continued to regenerate and
backbuild upon continued upper ascent and strongly veered low level
jet. Rainfall rates overnight, and for the next couple days, have
been aided by an impressive fetch of Gulf and Pacific moisture,
shown well in the mid-level water vapor imagery. As the embedded
shortwave trough departs this morning, look for a steady end of
rainfall from west to east. Most areas should remain rain-free
through at least midday to early afternoon. At the surface, a
frontal boundary will settle south of Interstate 70 and become quasi-
stationary by midday. Light northerly winds and a mix of cloud cover
should help keep highs notably cooler than yesterday, with max
readings in the lower to middle 80s.

By late this afternoon into tonight, another shortwave trough is
projected to move across Kansas, increasing ascent in advance.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will once again spread across
parts of Kansas and Missouri during this afternoon into the
overnight hours of Thursday morning. The severe weather potential
appears to be marginal at best, and confined to areas along and
south of the surface boundary this afternoon and evening. Confidence
is a little lower for the location/persistence of the heaviest rain
axis later today into tonight. Currently, majority of model guidance
keeps that heavy rain axis along and just south of the frontal
boundary. This would place areas from Mound City/Butler to Sedalia
within the highest prob zone, and likewise the greatest risk
for flash flooding and additional river concerns. Lighter
amounts are expected for areas north of that axis.

Morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing to
start Thursday morning. A seasonably strong upper trough and
associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and
evening hours. As such with complex convective scenarios,
uncertainty exists to the degree of destabilization following
morning convection and the specific timing/location of the cold front
passage. Still, assuming some destabilization - which is quite
reasonable this time of year, the environment will support strong to
severe storms. Currently, the most probable areas will be across the
southeast half of the CWA ahead of the frontal passage. Overall
flash flooding concerns on Thursday may be mitigated somewhat by the
progressive nature anticipated with storm motions.

Near to slightly below normal temps should finish out the week, with
at least Friday and Saturday quiet to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Ceilings slowly improving to MVFR through this afternoon.
Watching shower activity over Kansas that will moving toward the
area. Thunderstorms possible overnight, with a lot of
uncertainty with specific timing. More activity possible
Thursday, but will depend on Wednesday night activity.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Krull