774
ACUS03 KWNS 111927
SWODY3
SPC AC 111926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern
U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York.
Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley..
An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a
weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into
the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this
trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating
occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop
within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of
NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and
sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating
hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal.

...VA northward into NY...
Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and
the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist
well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will
result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in
the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across
NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows
spreading across a larger area from NY into PA.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

$$