276
ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030742

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper
Ohio Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through
the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend
westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will
approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a
cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with
the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern
Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes
surface low into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity...
Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of
destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe
storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday
afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass
(dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount
of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind
gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe
hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional
supercell structures.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will
be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more
nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm
development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in
a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident,
marginal severe probabilities could be needed.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024

$$