427
ACUS02 KWNS 061732
SWODY2
SPC AC 061731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS...AND ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central
Rockies across the Plains and through the OH Valley and Northeast
early Sunday, flanked on each side by upper ridging. This overall
ridge/trough/ridge pattern is forecast to remain largely in place
throughout the period, with some modest easterly progression of the
upper trough as several embedded shortwave troughs move through it.
TC Beryl is expected to move through the western periphery of the
subtropical ridging centered over the northeast Gulf/northern FL,
with the current NHC forecast track placing it just off the middle
TX Coast (approximately 50 miles east of CRP) by 12Z Monday.

A surface low will likely begin the period near the CO/KS/OK border
intersection, with an expansive cold front extending southeastward
from this low into east TX before then arcing more eastward across
the Lower MS Valley and more northeastward across the northern
Southeast states and Carolina Piedmont. This front demarcates the
more continental airmass to its north from the more tropical airmass
associated with the subtropical ridge to its south. This front will
remain largely in place throughout the period aside from some
modification along its western periphery over the southern Plains
amid low-level moisture advection. Another front associated with an
additional surge of more continental air will likely progress
southeastward across the Upper MS Valley and central Plains.

Thunderstorms are likely along this more westerly cold front across
the Plains, with the highest afternoon/evening coverage likely over
western/central OK and far northwest TX. Rainbands associated with
Beryl are possible along the TX Coast throughout the day, with
thunderstorms along the stationary front stretched across the
Southeast and Carolinas as well.

...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning from
southwest KS into northwest/north-central OK, supported by warm-air
advection across the front. This storms are expected to gradually
shift southeastward while weakening in tandem with the weakening of
the low-level jet. Low-level convergence along the outflow
associated with these storms as well as along the front and
associated surface low will likely lead to additional thunderstorm
development once the airmass destabilizes during the afternoon.
Temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will help support moderate
to strong buoyancy and robust updrafts with this afternoon/evening
development.

Vertical shear will be strong enough to support an initially
cellular mode, but high LCLs, steep low-level lapse rates and close
storm proximity will support largely outflow-dominant storm
structures, with damaging gusts as the primary severe threat. Large
hail is also possible with the earlier, more cellular storms.
Mid-level flow will be modest, but vertically veering wind profiles
will still help support moderate vertical shear and the potential
for organization into a forward-progressing convective line. This
could result in a corridor of higher wind risk, but when and where
this occurs is uncertain, particularly given the uncertainty of how
the outflow from the early morning storm evolves. This uncertainty
precludes introducing higher wind probabilities with this outlook.

...Southeast CO/Northeast NM into southwest KS...
Afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is possible along the
higher terrain before then tracking into the modest low-level
moisture in place downstream. A few stronger gusts and/or isolated
hail is possible with these storms as these storms progress
southeastward into southwest KS and the western OK/northwest TX
Panhandle.

...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast...
Rainbands associated with TC Beryl will likely spread northwestward
into the region during the afternoon, with low to mid-level flow
increasing during this time as well. A few stronger gusts and/or a
tornado or two are possible with the more intense storms within
these bands. Convective coverage will contract overnight, but
thunderstorms capable of tornadoes and convectively augmented gusts
are still possible closer to the center (i.e. largely along the
middle TX Coast).

...Southern MN into northern WI...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of
the cold front and associated surface low forecast to move eastward
across the region throughout the day. A belt of slightly stronger
mid-level flow may extend across the region, but buoyancy will be
modest, likely mitigating the overall severe potential. An isolated
strong storm or two is still possible, with small hail and damaging
gusts as the primary threats. Limited anticipated severe coverage
precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 07/06/2024

$$