Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
936 ACUS02 KWNS 010604 SWODY2 SPC AC 010603 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 $$