523
FXUS63 KDVN 061716
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Turning unsettled once again with periodic showers and storms
  tonight through at least Monday.

- Near normal temperatures through much of next week.

- Could Beryl have an impact on our weather next week? Time
  will tell.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Fairly tranquil conditions and seasonable temperatures are being
found early this morning and will persist throughout today, as
heights aloft undergo a bit of amplification between a Great
Lakes upper trough and an approaching shortwave diving into the
Northern Plains. Highs today should top out from near 80 to 85F
with a SCT-BKN cumulus deck. PoPs are not zero with building
instability and steepening lapse rates this afternoon, but the
lack of a coherent trigger and rather shallow moisture profiles
keep PoPs below mention.

Tonight, cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the approaching
Northern Plains shortwave and moisture advection attendant to a
veering 30+ kt low level jet will lead to chances (40-60%) for
showers and storms by late evening and especially overnight,
mainly north and west of the Quad Cities. Severe weather is not
anticipated, but some gusty winds may be possible from a waning
cool pool off decaying remnants of more organized convection to
our west, as hinted at by some of the CAMs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A quasi-omega block is forecast through early next week, with
a series of shortwaves traversing along the SW to NE
oriented mid/upper flow ahead of a mean upper trough over the
Upper Mississippi Valley. This will keep the pattern unsettled
owing to periodic showers and storms through at least Monday
and possibly into Tuesday. PoPs will be high at times (60+%),
but placement will vary pending the track of the shortwaves and
location of a wavering surface frontal boundary. Deep layer
shear looks generally marginal as typical for July and thus
any organized severe weather threat appears low at this time.
However, will have to keep an eye out for any augmentation of
the deep layer wind fields by any shortwaves, which could
foster a severe weather threat if juxtaposed with favorable
diurnal timing and sufficient instability. The threat for
widespread heavy or excessive rainfall also appears low at this
time, with 00z GEFS indicating probabilities of >1 inch of total
QPF through 12z Tuesday at 30-50% and ECE at just 20-30%. This
would be good news for area rivers. We are monitoring the track of
Tropical Storm Beryl, which is currently moving into the south
central Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest NHC forecast it is
expected to intensify into a Hurricane before reaching the lower
and middle Texas coast late Sunday and Monday, then weaken to a
Tropical Depression while reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday evening. The GFS Vertically Integrated Water Vapor
Transport (IVT) plots does suggest the potential for at least some
connection of moisture from the remnants of Beryl poleward into
the existing moist conveyor ahead of the front in the region. That
being said, the strongest IVT does show to remain disconnected
and closer to remnant low center, but nonetheless this will be
worth monitoring for any potential for a deeper connection leading
to a more widespread heavy rain threat ahead of the frontal
boundary draped across the area. Otherwise, the general consensus
of the ensemble guidance beyond mid next week keeps the remnants
of Beryl well south/east of the area into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. It is possible being on the northwest flank of this
system that subsidence could increase enough to give us several
days of dry weather from Wednesday through Friday and possibly
deeper into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A pleasant VFR day is expected the rest of today and through
this evening, as high pressure controls the weather. Light winds
will become southeasterly tonight, as warm advection begins to
spread moisture over the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will move east across Iowa overnight, reaching eastern Iowa
after midnight, and into Illinois toward morning. These should
not be strong, but could bring MVFR visibility at times, and
lower cigs to around 3000-4000 ft.

After rains end Sunday morning, we should see widely scattered
activity through the day, with predominantly dry VFR conditions.



&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Ervin