![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
544 FXUS63 KDTX 101804 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 204 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures this weekend with breezy west winds into this evening and then again on Sunday. - Dry or mainly dry weather, with just a slight/low chance of brief showers on Sunday, and sporadic brief times next week. - Near normal temps expected next week. && .AVIATION... SCT-BKN VFR cumulus this afternoon is being supported by the cooler air associated with troughing over the Great Lakes. Ceilings are sitting around 5,000 feet at press time with potential for ceilings to settle slightly higher throughout the afternoon. Mixing depths are tapping into stronger flow aloft and bringing wind gusts out of the west to around 25 knots. Wind gusts at times may achieve the 30 knot mark. Gusts subside after sunset with some degree of clouds holding through the overnight with the trough overhead. It remains possible for a stray shower towards MBS, but will keep mention out given the low probability. For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms are expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 DISCUSSION... Large upper level low/trough encompassing Central Canada south into the Midwest/Great Lakes region, with at least 3 distinct upper level waves/mid level cold pools rotating around. Once such wave is tracking off to the northeast, north of Lake Huron. Thus, just a glancing blow of cold air to move through today. 00z Green Bay raob indicated an 850 MB temps of 7 C, but some modification is expected, with 850 MB temps of 7.5-10 C suggesting highs today in the 70 to 75 degree range. Deep boundary layer mixing with 30 knots of flow at 850 MB will be supportive of westerly gusts around 30 mph this afternoon. Lots of strato-cu development, but looks like showers will be hard pressed to develop, except perhaps in and near Saginaw Bay. Better chance of showers, but still low, tonight and tomorrow. The shortwave along the northern North Dakota border swings through tonight, with the main trough axis extending from the parent 500 MB low tracking through on Sunday. 700 MB cold pool (-2 C to perhaps -4 C) looks to be tracking through Lake Huron, which suggests the best chance of showers will be over the northern Thumb region with the west-northwest low level flow. Upper level northwest confluent flow/subsidence Sunday night gives way to ill defined pattern as some shortwave energy/upper level PV over the Dakotas attempts slide through early next week. NBM came in with pops 10 percent or less, but 00z Euro certainly argues for having at least slight chance pops Monday-Tuesday based on the strength and northward position of the shortwave tracking through the Central Great Lakes. Moisture remains on the low side, with up to 6 g/kg of mean specific humidity in the 850-700 MB layer. Resumed northwest confluent flow/modest shortwave ridging for the middle part of the week then expected, with temperatures near normal. MARINE... Low pressure remains over Ontario today but will slowly pull off to the northeast. Increased cold air advection today combined with a tightening gradient, due to high pressure to the south, will bring gusty winds today. Winds ramp up this morning reaching 25 knots across all marine zones and possibly up towards 30 knots across Saginaw Bay and Central Lake Huron. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones this morning through this evening. Will reassess to see if Saginaw Bay needs to be extended further into the overnight. Wind do look to decrease back below 25 knots for Sunday as high pressure starts to build back in from the south. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ049. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.