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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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129 FXUS63 KDTX 110723 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 323 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions today again marked by below normal temperatures and breezy westerly winds. - Dry or mainly dry weather, with just a slight/low chance of brief showers today, and sporadic brief times next week. - Near normal temps expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Higher amplitude mid level troughing entrenched locally early this morning, as meaningful height falls emanate from a closed mid level circulation over eastern Ontario/western Quebec. Plume of higher mid level moisture evident on satellite pivoting through a perturbed cyclonic flow contributing to some widely scattered light showers, despite a general lack of greater moisture quality or depth. This underlying profile to receive an additional boost to the upward vertical motion field with time via a combination of a mid level trough passage and improving diurnal lapse rates environment beneath the inherent cold pool. This lends to a persistent lower end chance for light shower production today, with greater prospects edged higher with northward extent. The cooler resident thermal profile again translates into highs in the 70s. Confluent mid level northwest flow suggests a higher degree of underlying stability for Monday. Weak signal remains for a very minor potential /less than 20 percent/ for shower development at peak heating as lapse rates attempt to steepen sufficiently. Sufficient recovery within the mean thickness field to bring temperatures back closer to average to begin the work week. Similar overall conditions into Tuesday, with no evidence of meaningful thermal advection to shift toward a more noteworthy warming trend yet. There remains some potential for a still ill-defined shortwave to transit the region during the daylight hours. An infusion of dcva to capitalize on steeper lapse rates could prove sufficient toward generating a low end coverage of convective showers sometime within the late Tuesday/early Tue night window. Blended model guidance holding firm with a dry forecast, but enough evidence in the individual solution space to provide a limited mention attm. Seasonable and generally benign conditions in store for the Wed-Thu timeframe. Ridge of high pressure anchored just to the east maintains influence under a building upper height field. Retention of a low level southeasterly gradient mutes the overall potential for a more meaningful warming trend. Highs projected to arrive in the lower 80s. Transition toward a potentially more active pattern to finish the work week, with conditions governed by behavior of stronger height falls ejecting out of the plains and corresponding convective evolution both upstream and locally. Low predictability setup at this stage and NBM agrees in offering a modest precip chance mention. && .MARINE... Broad upper low still spins just off to the northeast of the Lake Huron with another trough rotating around it this morning. With overall pressure gradient weakening with the northward advancement of high pressure into the southern Great Lakes, weaker winds aloft to mix down, and lower mixing height, will keep winds under 25 knots in the nearshore zones although a brief gust or two may reach 25 knots. This is especially the case around the tip of the Thumb closer to the stronger gradient over the open waters and closer to the low where winds are still expected to peak around 30 knots today. There is also a chance for waterspouts over the waters today with any showers that develop. The high will continue northward, eventually encompassing the entire region tonight. The high will then persist through the first half of the week keeping the waters quiet. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 AVIATION... Unsettled pattern within cyclonic west/northwest flow will maintain periods of lower VFR cigs into tonight, but with some scattering out possible in time. A few showers may also encroach on KMBS/KFNT/KPTK. An additional diurnal component should then lead to a period of BKN cigs again Sunday. Westerly flow will of 10 knots or less overnight with gusts to 20 or more knots by midday Sunday with better mixing. For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms are expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft Sunday afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MR AVIATION.....DG You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.