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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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535 FXUS63 KDTX 120929 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 529 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through the mid week period. - Isolated showers possible today and Tuesday. - Rain chances increase Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION... Mainly clear skies this morning gives way to VFR SCT-BKN cu/strato- cu developing this afternoon as a shortwave encroaches on the area near peak heating. Isolated showers will also be possible in this scenario. Westerly winds will continue, but with less gustiness as pressure gradient diminishes into tomorrow. For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms are expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 DISCUSSION... Mid level cyclonic flow gradually relents today, as height falls associated with a seasonably strong closed low over Quebec finally release eastward. General transition toward confluent mid level northwest flow atop weak high pressure suggests a higher degree of stability will exist across the column today. With that, daytime heating offers a window for shallow instability to emerge, with a couple hundred joules of CAPE targeted for the late day period. This may prove sufficient to yield isolated showers, highlighted primarily along the US 23 corridor given a noted weak signal of convergence. Plausible nothing develops as moisture quality remains lean within a moderately mixed profile. Temperatures take step upward within the backdrop of an increasing upper height field. Late day readings arriving closer to average, with humidity remaining manageable. Conditions largely a carbon copy for Tuesday. Loosely organized high pressure beneath persistent northwest flow ensures thermal advection remains muted, maintaining a seasonable mid August thermal profile. Potential for a modest uptick in larger scale vertical motion as shortwave energy works through the great lakes offers slightly greater convective shower potential during the peak heating cycle. Still not a great signal overall across short range model guidance, but the underlying thermodynamic profile again affords a weakly unstable profile as lapse rates steepen diurnally. Forecast maintains an isolated mention attm. Upper ridging takes control for the Wed-Thu window. No significant weather noted this period given depth of stability within this environment. An increase in the upper height field portends additional moderation of the existing airmass, but still no evidence of a more sizable warming trend with low level flow still backed to the southeast and cloud cover likely an increasing issue by Thursday. Attention Thursday night into Friday turns to an initial period of forced ascent and accompanying moisture advection associated with an organizing height fall center propagating toward the upper great lakes. Improving confidence evident within the model solution space for a meaningful response locally during this timeframe, offering an increasing probability for shower and thunderstorm production within the background of concentrated ascent above 850 mb. Potentially unsettled conditions heading into the weekend, as pv consolidates into a more organized low nearby and engages an increasingly moist and weakly unstable profile during this time. Positioning and downstream pace of the governing large scale features will dictate the scope and timing of any prospective convective episodes. MARINE... High pressure will continue to build northward across the region today pushing the last bit of influence from the Quebec low out of the Great Lakes. More stable conditions with ridging aloft and at the surface should produce favorable marine conditions across the waters through mid week with max wind gusts mostly below 10 knots and minimal wave heights. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.