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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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902 FXUS63 KDTX 130920 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 520 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures today with mainly dry conditions outside of an isolated shower. - A bit warmer Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions. - Rain chances increase Thursday night and Friday and continue through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies expected through the taf period. Modest increase in VFR clouds expected this afternoon, with brief cigs possible, especially over southern tafs where there is also a very low chance of a passing showers. There is fog potential tonight, but confidence is low and will just include MVFR restriction for now. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 DISCUSSION... Larger scale pattern remains defined by upper level northwest flow atop a loosely organized, elongated region of high pressure. Shortwave energy accelerating through the mean flow set to arrive this morning, a touch sooner than model guidance projected over recent days. Little evidence per observational trends or hi res solutions for the uptick in dcva to afford a greater window for convective development early today, given the noted stability still held throughout the column as this poorly timed trough passage fails to capitalize on the heating cycle. Lack of meaningful instability still evident into the afternoon, held back by limited moisture quality within a modestly mixed profile. This offers simply a very low potential /less than 20 percent/ for a smattering of showers to emerge 20z-00z, perhaps anchored by lake breeze interaction with any localized differential heating zones. Seasonable temperatures persist. Higher magnitude upper ridging anchored over the midwest today will ease into the region over the next 36 hours. Conditions governed by low to mid level ridging both Wednesday and Wed night lends to benign weather conditions under mostly clear skies. This translates into a modest warming trend this period under a combination of building upper heights and full diabatic heating potential. This brings high temps of low to mid 80s, with a bump upward in humidity. Next round of stronger height falls underway by this time across the plains, setting the stage for greater moisture transport to emerge within a broadening corridor of warm air advection immediately downstream. Larger scale ridging likely to maintain a strong influence into Thursday, acting as an initial deterrent for any lead shortwave energy to organize a greater mid level response as higher level moisture increases with time. Mostly cloudy conditions favored for the daylight period, with limited precip potential until closer to sunset. Plume of higher quality theta-e arrives Thursday night along an advancing warm front attendant to stacked low pressure system centered over north-central Wisconsin. Diminishing mid level stability to capitalize on supportive large scale ascent to bring a higher probability of showers and embedded thunderstorms this period. There remains some uncertainty regarding downstream pace and positioning of the larger scale features, meaning these conditions may linger and/or focus more into Friday depending on timing of the trailing cold/occluding front. NBM maintains a broader outlook for this window in offering higher end precip chances both periods so addition refinement likely. Upper low remains a fixture into next weekend as it slowly migrates across the great lakes. The warm season mid level cyclonic flow lends to unsettled conditions, with a particular focus on the afternoon and evening as lapse rates peak beneath the cold pool and engage a very moist profile. Temperatures likely edged just on the cooler side of average, with a degree of variability each day depending on precip coverage. MARINE... High pressure holds over the region through Wednesday maintaining light and variable winds, minimal waves, and dry conditions. Southeasterly winds strengthen by late Thursday as upper Midwest low pressure reaches the Great Lakes. This system brings the next chances for showers and storms as well as moderate (~15-20kt) southeast winds to close out the week. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.