870
FXUS63 KDMX 050920
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
420 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively cool and cloudy today with scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorms.

- Quiet tonight into Saturday morning. Storm chances return late
  Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

- Additional chances for showers and isolated storms persist
  into early next week, although over severe threat is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A broad upper trof is expected to remain across the central United
States over the next several days.  This general pattern helps to
keep temperatures in check for early July along with chances for
scattered convection into early next week. Currently, an upper
low sits just north of Iowa with associated convection east of
north of the forecast area. Much of the area has cleared
although clouds in southwest Minnesota are beginning to move
into northern Iowa as the upper low drifts gradually southeast
into today. The clouds are expected to overspread much of the
forecast area into today with the exception of the far south.
Sufficient lift and some weak instability help produce scattered
showers into today initially in the north but spreading south
as daytime heating peaks. Some locally heavy downpours, gusty
winds and some small hail may occur but the threat of severe
weather remains low today. The activity will be mostly diurnal
in nature with a decrease in coverage this evening along with
some clearing. Relatively light winds tonight along with some
clearing should lead to a cool night with readings in the 50s to
lower 60s.

The next shortwave in the broad trof drops southeast into South
Dakota on Saturday with a resurgence of warm advection by afternoon
into Saturday night. The increasing theta-e advection and
modest instability leads to convection across Nebraska during
the day which slides east with the wave into Iowa by late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible as PWATS increase to around 1.5" by Saturday night.
The severe threat looks somewhat muted given relatively
unimpressive lapse rates and weak low level shear.

Additional weak waves move to the southeast into the upper Midwest
through early next week providing additional threat for showers and
storms, likely somewhat diurnally driven. The overall severe
threat remains relatively low during this time as the shear
profile is rather lax. Temperatures remain at or below normal as
well with the bulk of heat holding west across the
intermountain region of the southwest. However, as next week
progresses, this warmer air is likely to build eastward with
warming conditions through the end of the work week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Storms have moved out of the area leaving behind VFR conditions
at the start of the period. However, this will be replaced by
MVFR ceilings as clouds rotate back into the state from the
north before sunrise Friday morning. These clouds will spread
towards I-80 and are forecast to lift and become BKN in the
afternoon. These clouds may also be accompanied by showers or
thunderstorms, which would arrive likely after daybreak Friday
if not mid-Friday morning. However, chances are just 20 to 30%
at any given location and given the spotty, light nature, have
opted to continue to leave out mention of VCSH/SHRA. Winds from
the northwest will be brisk with gusts up to 25 knots possible
at some terminals during the daytime hours before settling down
in the evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Area rivers continue the gradual fall from the intense rains
in June. There were some rises in the upper Des Moines and Shell
Rock basins late Thursday from scattered storms, but mostly
nuisance rises. Saylorville Reservoir also continues to slowly
rise, with a peak level still forecast near 878 feet on July
10-11. The chances for additional showers and storms persist
through the weekend into early next week, but with only a low
threat of widespread heavy rainfall. The main concern would be
an isolated heavy rain leading to localized rise on a river.
Overall, a gradual decrease in river levels is expected to
persist into the weekend.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Ansorge
HYDROLOGY...Cogil