408
FXUS63 KDMX 071145
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
645 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms today into tonight.
- Isolated/Scattered afternoon convection expected Monday into
  Wednesday.
- Warming late in the forecast as western ridge edges toward the
  Midwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Spotty convection remains over portions of central Iowa this morning
as low level moisture transport remains directed into the state
early this morning. There has been some locally heavy rainfall with
areas near Tama and Marshalltown over an inch.  CAMs continue to
have isolated/scattered convection into the morning in southern and
central Iowa as the low level flow remains directed into the state
along with weak instability.  Meanwhile, another shortwave drops
through the Dakotas and into Nebraska today.  This helps to bring
another round of lift into the state by this afternoon into tonight.
Instability climbs with MUCAPEs above 1000 J/KG by early afternoon
with convection expanding as the wave approaches. Some of the 06Z
CAMS have indicated the potential for higher wind gusts,
particularly in the southeast where there are slight inverted-v
soundings.  Localized heavy rainfall is also possible but the
overall threat for increased flooding or flash flooding remains
relatively low given the progression of the bulk of the activity
later today into tonight.

The broad upper trof remains in place into the early portion of the
week as Beryl comes ashore on the Texas coast and heads northeast.
The trof axis is expected to be nearly overhead on Monday with
daytime heating providing some weak instability by afternoon.  This
should support some isolated convection during the peak heating
hours over the north half to two-thirds of the state.  Temperatures
remain below normal with extensive cumulus field developing by
afternoon as well.  Similar conditions exist on Tuesday as the
remnants of Beryl move into the lower Midwest and toward the Ohio
River Valley although the coverage is expected to be less given
generally less forcing.  By Wednesday, both GFS and Euro indicate a
decent shortwave dropping south toward the state which should
encourage the development of afternoon convection once again.

Some transition in the pattern is anticipated by late in the work
week with the upper trof finally lifting northeast and upper ridging
in the western United States expanding east into the Plains.  Warmer
air is expected to push back into Iowa by Friday and into next
weekend with readings likely heading back towards the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Morning convection to impact KDSM and KOTM as it passes across
southern Iowa with local MVFR to IFR conditions in and around
thunderstorms. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected
today for much of the area. Scattered thunderstorms develop this
afternoon and persist into the evening with MVFR to IFR
conditions once again in and around the thunderstorms. There may
be some wind gusts of 35+kts near the storms as well. Patchy fog
may also develop toward the end of the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil