523
FXUS63 KDLH 110804
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
304 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures return today and linger through the
  upcoming week.

- 10-20% chance for light showers and sprinkles this afternoon and
  tomorrow afternoon

- Rain/storm chances increase to 20-40% Wed-Fri

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Current Conditions/Today:

A little more sunshine today as the upper level low that has been
the main driver for clouds the last few days shifts further east. We
still maintain cyclonic flow aloft with diurnally driven clouds
blossoming in the afternoon. The latest batch of CAMs introduce
some increased QPF albeit very light (less than 0.05"). With
the increased lapse rates in the afternoon we have opted to
increase chances of light rain and sprinkles slightly. This
activity will quickly taper off this evening. Temperatures warm
back to seasonal averages with highs in the mid 70s.

Start of the work week:

Not a lot of variance in the forecast for the early portions of
the work week. Surface high pressure builds over the region
with a few subtle shortwaves aloft. The result is seasonal
temperatures with diurnally driven cumulus clouds in the
afternoon that may produce light rain/sprinkles at times. We do
manage to build some instability for Monday afternoon but the
subsidence in place keeps the thunder threat less then 10% at
this time.

Midweek:

Cluster analysis shows strong upper level ridging over the Hudson
Bay begins to shift to the east as weak troughing moves into the
Northern Plains Wednesday. The 00Z suite of deterministic
guidance is starting to come into better agreement on delaying
the onset time into the afternoon hours. This is reflected well
in the NBM with 20-30% chance of PoPs spreading in from the
west. These rain chances linger into Friday. Accompanying these
rain chances are some increased PWATs of 1.25". WPC has both Wed
and Thursday highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. There still remains some uncertainty with the upper
level pattern. The Euro has a more progressive pattern while the
GFS slows the pattern with a cut off low developing. A heavy
rainfall threat will be favored should models trend towards the
GFS solution. Additionally, as a baroclinic zone encroaches from
the west we will see increased instability joining the elevated
PWATs. Severe parameters don`t look favorable currently but
some storms through the period will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions through the forecast period. High clouds are not
expected to be quite as dense today. Another round of diurnally
driven cumulus will populate in the afternoon with the chance of
sprinkles.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Northwest winds today around 5 to 10 knots will turn to out of the
southwest by late morning with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 knots
through the afternoon. A few gusts around 20 kts will be possible
along the North Shore. This afternoon could also see some light
rain/sprinkles (10-20% chance). Westerly winds persist through
the next couple days but speeds are not expected to be high
enough to warrant issues for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt