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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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523 FXUS63 KDLH 110804 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 304 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures return today and linger through the upcoming week. - 10-20% chance for light showers and sprinkles this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon - Rain/storm chances increase to 20-40% Wed-Fri && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Current Conditions/Today: A little more sunshine today as the upper level low that has been the main driver for clouds the last few days shifts further east. We still maintain cyclonic flow aloft with diurnally driven clouds blossoming in the afternoon. The latest batch of CAMs introduce some increased QPF albeit very light (less than 0.05"). With the increased lapse rates in the afternoon we have opted to increase chances of light rain and sprinkles slightly. This activity will quickly taper off this evening. Temperatures warm back to seasonal averages with highs in the mid 70s. Start of the work week: Not a lot of variance in the forecast for the early portions of the work week. Surface high pressure builds over the region with a few subtle shortwaves aloft. The result is seasonal temperatures with diurnally driven cumulus clouds in the afternoon that may produce light rain/sprinkles at times. We do manage to build some instability for Monday afternoon but the subsidence in place keeps the thunder threat less then 10% at this time. Midweek: Cluster analysis shows strong upper level ridging over the Hudson Bay begins to shift to the east as weak troughing moves into the Northern Plains Wednesday. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance is starting to come into better agreement on delaying the onset time into the afternoon hours. This is reflected well in the NBM with 20-30% chance of PoPs spreading in from the west. These rain chances linger into Friday. Accompanying these rain chances are some increased PWATs of 1.25". WPC has both Wed and Thursday highlighted in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. There still remains some uncertainty with the upper level pattern. The Euro has a more progressive pattern while the GFS slows the pattern with a cut off low developing. A heavy rainfall threat will be favored should models trend towards the GFS solution. Additionally, as a baroclinic zone encroaches from the west we will see increased instability joining the elevated PWATs. Severe parameters don`t look favorable currently but some storms through the period will be possible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 VFR conditions through the forecast period. High clouds are not expected to be quite as dense today. Another round of diurnally driven cumulus will populate in the afternoon with the chance of sprinkles. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Northwest winds today around 5 to 10 knots will turn to out of the southwest by late morning with speeds increasing to 10 to 15 knots through the afternoon. A few gusts around 20 kts will be possible along the North Shore. This afternoon could also see some light rain/sprinkles (10-20% chance). Westerly winds persist through the next couple days but speeds are not expected to be high enough to warrant issues for small vessels. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Britt MARINE...Britt