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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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852 FXUS63 KDLH 020842 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 342 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of heavy rain has occurred over portions of far northern Minnesota, mainly across parts of Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and far northwest Lake Counties. The Flood Watch continues there as runoff works its way into rivers and streams. - Showers and a few thunderstorms this morning will end from southwest to northeast with additional isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon and early evening. - More rain expected later Thursday into Friday and it could be heavy, especially over southern portions of the Northland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A southerly 45 to 50 knot jet continued this morning and was aiding in producing showers and a few thunderstorms. Instability was meager at best and only a few thunderstorms are expected this morning. Heavy rainfall has occurred over portions of Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and far northwest Lake Counties. Observations show amounts from 1 to 2.5" as of 3AM. Showers continued across much of the Northland but were ending over southwest portions. Additional rainfall this morning will be up to a half inch. We cancelled the Flood Watch for all but Koochiching, Northern St. Louis, and inland Lake/Cook Counties. Runoff from the heavy rain will be working through rivers and streams today. The low level jet will shift east and veer to southwest through this morning. Prior to that, isolated higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible, mostly likely over northwest Wisconsin. A frontal boundary extended south out of low pressure in southern Manitoba through the Red River Valley into Nebraska this moving. After the showers move off or diminish in coverage this morning, additional development will occur this afternoon, especially ahead of the frontal boundary. CAPE will increase to 400 to ~1000j/kg so a few thunderstorms will occur as well. Coverage of the showers/storms are not expected to be widespread so additional widespread heavy rain is not expected. Showers/storms will end tonight and it should be dry into Wednesday morning for most. There is a chance for a few showers/storms to develop Wednesday afternoon over much of the Northland and we have 20-30% POPS going over all but far southern portions. Highs Wednesday will be from the lower seventies to around eighty. A stronger shortwave will arrive on Thursday with a surface low forming. There is general consensus among the deterministic models that the upper wave and surface low will move through southern Minnesota or northern Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday. ECMWF ensemble members show a significant spread in low track. There is potential for heavy rain over portions of the Northland, with southern areas favored at this time. There is some instability to work with too although PWAT values are a bit lower, around 1.4", compared to the current system. The NBM has 30-50% chance for rainfall of 1" or greater Thursday into Friday night from east central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. An upper ridge will build over the western CONUS/western Canada over the weekend with north/northwest upper flow over the Northland. A couple more shortwaves will dive southeast and bring rain chances but these system will be more progressive. Temperatures will be seasonal through much of the period with cooler temperatures occurring Friday over southern areas which will see the highest chances for rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Deteriorating conditions are expected tonight with ceilings lowering through MVFR to IFR. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region as well...with chances lowering from southwest to northeast later tonight into Tuesday morning. A strong low level jet will create low level wind shear overnight but it is forecast to shift east Tuesday morning. A frontal boundary will still be west of the Northland at 12Z Tuesday and it will move through the Northland with more chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will improve through the day to VFR but dips lower will occur with any showers/storms. Winds tonight into Tuesday morning will be challenge with occasional strong gusts with the low level jet overhead. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Southerly winds are expected today, from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots for most areas. However, stronger winds aloft may mix down at times greating stronger winds with gusts to 30 knots. This is most likely from the Twin Ports and South Shore and we issued a Small Craft Advisory there into this afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possibl today, mainly this afternoon and evening. The wind will veer to southwest tonight and be at 15 knots or less. West or southwest winds will strengthen Wednesday to 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed over portions of the nearshore waters. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch through this evening for MNZ010>012. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 148. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144>147. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde