751
FXUS63 KDLH 080530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in northeast
  Minnesota and scattered thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin
  from this afternoon persist into the evening hours today. A
  couple of storms in northwest Wisconsin may be strong.

- Another round of scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms
  are likely again Monday and Tuesday.

- A downturn in storm coverage begins Wednesday, with dry
  weather forecast for Thursday and Friday.

- A warming trend from near-normal temperatures in the mid to
  upper-70s to the mid to upper-80s is expected this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Low pressure has moved into far north-central Minnesota early
this afternoon per satellite imagery and latest high-res
analysis. This circulation can be seen via a southwesterly storm
motion in northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota, and
then a more westerly motion in the Brainerd Lakes and north-
northwesterly into far western Koochiching County. Mixed layer
CAPE has built to around 1500 J so far this afternoon in
northwest Wisconsin, which is reflected in the reports of pea
size hail and wind gusts to 30 mph from storms growing to about
25-30 kft above ground level. Observed rainfall rates have been
around 1"/hr under the heaviest storms so a quick half inch of
rainfall is entirely possible through this evening. Expect storm
coverage to decrease this evening for most locations, but
lingering last in the Brainerd Lakes as the trough associated
with the low shifts eastward into western Minnesota.

Overnight, areas of fog is forecast to form in some locations
and may (20% chance) create visibility down to 1/2 mile through
07-08 CT Monday morning.

Weak and disorganized northwest flow sets up for Monday behind
the trough exiting into the western Great Lakes Monday morning.
Lingering low to mid-level moisture and sufficient diurnal
heating are likely to promote another round of general
thunderstorms and showers for Monday afternoon and early
evening. This same pattern sets up again Tuesday.

As a mid to upper-level ridge axis sets up over the Central
Rockies to Northern High Plains and extending into the southern
Canadian Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, northerly and
drier flow begins to advect in a much drier airmass into the
region by that afternoon. This will help to create a downturn in
storm activity for Wednesday before completely dry weather is
forecast Thursday and Friday. While the warmest temperatures
aloft will remain in the Plains for Friday and Saturday, very
warm surface temperatures are likely (90% chance to hit the
mid-80s) and could (40% chance) even reach the 90 F mark for
inland north-central and east-central Minnesota locations.

Very limited rain and storm chances return Saturday, but there
is fairly low confidence in those 20-30% values at this point as
that capped environment persists.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions expected to steadily deteriorate early this morning as
radiation fog becomes widespread. MVFR to IFR visibilities expected.
Should it become dense enough, some lower ceilings could be possible
as well. This should improve after sunrise as fog burns off and VFR
conditions return. Expecting another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Monday. Coverage will be scattered but could bring a
quick reduction in vis and ceilings if a storm comes right over a
terminal. Should see coverage in these showers greatly diminish
through Monday evening with conditions returning to clear and VFR.
Another round of some patchy fog possible overnight into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light east to northeast winds today shift south to southwesterly
for Monday and Tuesday, while remaining below 15 knots. A couple
of stronger thunderstorms are possible along the South Shore
through this evening, with another round of storms forecast near
all shorelines again Monday afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...NLy