043
FXUS63 KDLH 032042
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
342 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues with scattered showers this afternoon and
then a better chance for widespread moderate rain Thu PM through
Friday. Best chance for rain in excess of a tenth of an inch across
southern portions of the Northland.

- Another system may bring additional chances of rain this weekend.

- High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood
  Advisory is in effect. See Hydro discussion for more details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Northwesterly flow and CAA leading to a continuously bubbling region
of cumulus clouds and some scattered rain showers this afternoon.
Westerly winds are strong and gusty at the surface. An isolated non-
severe thunderstorm could be possible closer to the International
Border late this afternoon. Into the evening, most of these clouds
and showers should dissipate as diurnal heating wears off, leaving
only the strongest of showers.

A larger system pushes in from the south and west into Thursday,
spurred by a stout trough aloft. Rain should begin by spreading from
south to north in Minnesota Thursday morning. With daytime heating,
CAMS suggest a blossoming of scattered showers across the region in
the afternoon, with the primary area of moderate more widespread
rain pushing west to east along a warm front. The northern extent of
that heavier rain currently looks to extend from the Brainerd Lakes
to northern Pine County to Hayward and Price County, with the
heaviest rainfall accumulations mostly across the St. Croix River
Basin and along and south of Highway 2 in NW WI, where an inch or
more of rain is possible by end of day Friday. Rainfall totals have
held fairly steady, except for an upward trend in Price County,
where rain in excess of 2 inches is forecast. Rain steadily pushes
out of the area from west to east through the day Friday. No severe
storms are expected but embedded thunderstorms are likely.

A brief moment of high pressure Saturday AM before our northwesterly
flow pattern delivers along shortwave to the region. This could
bring areas of rain showers through the weekend. Overall this rain
looks light and pretty dispersed with no heavy rain expected at this
time. Temperatures remain fairly seasonable through the period in
the 60s, 70s, and low 80s.

Looking much farther ahead, CPC precipitation outlooks continue to
suggest a 30-40% chance of below normal precipitation as we work our
way into mid July, which may bring some relief for our very wet
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions largely persist. A scattered 4kft ceiling is building
in across northern Minnesota with some isolated showers, and a
potential thunderstorm along the International Border. Coverage of
these showers decreases through the evening with VFR conditions
overnight. Strong westerly winds also calm through the evening
hours. Some patchy fog and MVFR visibilities possible Thursday
morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Strong WSW winds today have stayed gusting right around 15-20 knots,
with occasional higher gusts observed. These strongest gusts are
right along shore, with buoys further in the lake showing much
calmer conditions. Winds and waves ramped up this morning but have
stayed fairly steady into the early afternoon per latest surface
station and buoy observations. Southwest winds should calm through
the evening, becoming northeasterly into Thursday. These northeast
winds are expected to be assisted by a lake breeze circulation and
increasing pressure gradient Thursday afternoon, and may become
quite gusty in the afternoon, especially at the head of the lake.
Current forecast ramped up afternoon winds to 15 knots, but hi-res
guidance shows there is a 20-40% chance of seeing winds 20-25 knots
tomorrow afternoon, particularly for the Twin Ports. Northeasterly
winds will continue into the end of the week, keeping conditions on
the bumpy side but currently below small craft condition criteria.
Some rain and embedded thunderstorms could be possible late Thursday
through the day Friday, most likely along the South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A Flood Advisory is now in effect across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the
Rainy Lake outlet. Lingering high water from rains in June continue
to be present across the Rainy River Basin. Far headwaters gauges on
the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and Lake Vermilion have crested
and indicate that the flood wave or peak water levels are slowly
making their way through the basin. However, rises continue on the
Vermilion River and Lac La Croix and downstream of those points.
This has led to high water and some minor flooding on Crane Lake and
Namakan/Kabetogama (Nam/Kab) lakes, as well as lake levels
increasing on Rainy Lake. Per the latest IJC water level bulletin,
dam operators have pulled all logs at Kettle and Squirrel Falls, and
continue pulling logs at International Falls as conditions allow in
order to maximize outflow through the basin. However, the sheer
volume of water moving through the basin will still result in rises
on these lakes due to the natural constriction of the flow.
Vermilion River is forecast to crest late this week and then begin
slow recessions. Water level rises further downstream on Nam/Kab are
likely to continue (latest rates of rise have been an inch or two a
day, this is likely peak rates of rise and should begin to slow by
the weekend), with peak water level early to mid next week. As is
usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions will
happen at glacial speeds. Additional rainfall may cause brief rises
in tributaries and extend the period of high water in core lakes.
Boaters should expect high water, potentially hidden underwater
hazards, and strong currents in constricted areas. Some northerly
winds are possible Friday, but are not expected to be strong, so
wave heights should be minimal. The Flood Advisory currently extends
through next Wednesday, but may need to be extended based on
observed conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
HYDROLOGY...Levens