087
FXUS63 KDLH 042336
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues with a chance for moderate rain this
  afternoon through Friday. The greatest chance of 0.5-1.0
  inches is mainly south of a line from the Brainerd Lakes to
  Moose Lake to Ashland, WI.

- Another system will bring additional chances of rain this
  weekend, and intermittently again next week.

- High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood
  Advisory is in effect through early next week. See the summary
  at www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Active weather continues with an upper level shortwave moving
across the area today in combination with a warm humid airmass
and and weak surface features to generate some scattered
showers/storms. The upper low is over southeast South Dakota as
depicted by the nice swirl on IR satellite imagery this
afternoon. The convection driven by this upper low is mainly
over central and southern MN into WI, with warm air advection
driving up over a weak warm front extending from the surface low
over southwest MN east along the IA/MN border into southern WI.
A sort of inverted trough extending north into northwest MN,
and is associated with the scattered shower and storm activity
we are seeing there as well. While we have managed to build CAPE
of around 1000 j/kg this afternoon for parts of the area, deep
layer shear values are less than 20kts, leaving us with
primarily upright storms with little chance for severe storms,
though their slow movement may produce locally heavy rainfall,
though with the storms not lasting very long, any flooding risk
is going to depend on repeat storms over the same areas. This
pattern will continue into tonight as the upper low moves slowly
east across the area, with it remaining close enough to
continue to generate shower and storm chances through Friday.
With this overhead, we have been a little cooler than normal,
which should continue on Friday as well.

The upper low moves out in time to give us dry weather late
Friday night into Saturday, before another slow moving shortwave
swings through the broad upper level trough overhead Saturday
evening through Monday. From what is depicted now, we should
have another couple days of decent instability without much
shear, producing brief heavy downpours and lightning, but any
severe risk looks very limited at this point. Again, with the
upper low overhead producing more cloud cover, temperatures will
be near to below normal.

This active weather pattern continues through much of next
week, with what looks like yet another shortwave that dives
through the upper level northwest flow, but model agreement on
the timing and strength of this feature is quite low, and we are
left with some intermittent small chance pops through the rest
of the work week. The northwest flow aloft and northwest flow
aloft will also help keep us near to below normal for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Low pressure passing through will keep showers and thunderstorms
at BRD for several hours this evening, eventually diminishing in
coverage and intensity as they move east. Showers and storms are
expected to move into HYR later this evening, and persisting
overnight with MVFR to IFR ceilings developing as low clouds
move in from the south. There is a bit of uncertainty on how
long these low ceilings may linger at HYR through Friday morning
though, with some models suggesting they may diminish in the
mid-morning versus late morning. At DLH, confidence is
increasing that storms may not impact the terminal at all with
better instability both north and south. Some showers will be
possible tonight though, not likely to drop visibility below
6SM. Dry and VFR conditions are most likely at HIB/INL tonight,
though there is a very small chance that some showers in the
vicinity could affect HIB this evening. As low pressure departs
on Friday, lingering instability may prompt some scattered
showers and storms to develop, which may affect any terminal
(20-40% chance). Some breezy north to northeast winds are
expected Friday afternoon, especially at HYR, with some gusts to
15 to 20 kt.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Northeast winds to slowly increase through this afternoon and
evening and gust in the 15 to 20 knot range tonight and early
Friday before diminishing again. Waves should build to between 1
and 3 feet. While this may make for a bumpy ride out on the
lake, conditions will not be especially hazardous for Small
Craft. Winds diminish Friday evening before increasing out of
the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. Speeds will
remain under 15 knots with waves of less than 2 feet.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...LE