553
FXUS63 KDLH 022324
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best chances (30-40%) for scattered strong thunderstorms from
  6-11 PM this evening are in the Iron Range, Borderlands and
  Arrowhead of northern Minnesota. Severe storms are not
  expected.

- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall
  is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest
  Wisconsin.

- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this
afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread
rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so
far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion
will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds
veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model
forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered
strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this
evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of
600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to
maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35
knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms
in this same time period. The most favored potential is from
Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.

The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight
tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to
around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A
secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday
afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms
in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening
again.

Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the
Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the
Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the
region. This area of mid-level divergence with building
instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest
Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered
daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend
near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up
to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for
inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is
this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for
the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning
as the low pressure drifts eastward.

A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens
Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the
northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this
trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts
of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and
ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic
thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

IFR/MVFR ceilings still envelope portions of the Northland this
evening but a cold front moving in from the west will bringing some
drier air. Out ahead of this front we do have a few storms across
northern MN and some drizzle/light rain entering NW WI. The window
for storms is limited and will be diminishing through the overnight
hours. Some fog may develop before sunrise but is not expected to
linger long. Tomorrow will sport some breezy winds out of the west
with some isolated storms possible across northern MN.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon
Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before
shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds
forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow
afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...NLy